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Former President Donald Trump’s top pollster, Tony Fabrizio, is confident in Trump’s standing in the swing states just days before the election. He claims that Trump’s position nationally and in key battleground states is significantly stronger than it was in the 2016 election. Fabrizio points to public polling data showing that Trump is now leading in five of the seven battleground states that are crucial for securing over 270 electoral votes. Trump’s current national polling average has improved from being down 7.4 points in 2016 to currently leading by 0.5 points against Kamala Harris.

The swing states that Fabrizio references also show a positive shift in Trump’s favor. Arizona, previously tied in 2020, now has Trump leading by 2.5 points. In Georgia, Trump has moved from a 0.4-point deficit to a 2.4-point lead. Michigan, where Trump was down by 8.2 points in 2020, now sees a much closer race with Trump trailing by only 0.4 points. Other swing states like North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have also shown significant improvements for Trump compared to four years ago.

Fabrizio’s analysis highlights how the 2020 election results in key swing states could have been much closer if small margins of votes had gone in Trump’s favor. He warns against overconfidence from Trump’s supporters and stresses the importance of remaining focused on the campaign’s closing message, persuading undecided voters, and turning out the base. Despite positive signs in early and absentee voting, Fabrizio emphasizes the importance of Election Day turnout for Trump supporters to secure victory.

While Trump’s campaign is optimistic about the current polling data and turnout efforts, there are questions about whether focusing on early voting may have impacted Election Day turnout. The campaign did not immediately comment on this issue when asked for clarification. Despite the positive trends in the data, maintaining momentum and avoiding distractions from media noise and negative analysis remains crucial for Trump’s campaign in the final days leading up to the election. Fabrizio’s memo encourages continued efforts to reach out to undecided voters and ensure strong voter turnout from Trump’s base.

As Election Day approaches, the focus is on mobilizing Trump’s supporters to vote and ensuring that the campaign’s message reaches those who are still undecided. The battle for key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania remains intense, with Trump currently leading in a number of these states according to polling data. While the outcome of the election remains uncertain, Trump’s campaign is banking on the positive trends in the data and the continued efforts to secure victory in the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election.

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