Democrats have been growing increasingly anxious about public polls showing former President Donald Trump making unprecedented inroads among Black and Hispanic voters. Surveys now consistently show Trump leading President Joe Biden nationally and in key swing states, with Trump improving his showing among voters of color compared to 2020. This has sparked debates about the accuracy of these numbers and the sustainability of Trump’s support among non-White voters. The presumptive GOP nominee is now energizing his base with incendiary ideas while attracting historic numbers of non-White voters, particularly on economic issues.
Trump’s ability to continue appealing to both White social conservatives and non-White voters could make him hard to beat in the upcoming election. Democrats see regaining support among voters of color, especially Hispanic voters, as crucial for Biden to recover. Polls show Trump drawing more support from Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican nominee since at least 1960. While there is some question about the accuracy of these polls, the trend of diminishing support for Biden among non-White voters is real.
The long-term trend of educational realignment is reshaping voting preferences among non-White voters, with Republicans gaining more support among those without a college degree. Biden’s challenges include weak numbers among younger Hispanic and Black voters, inflation disproportionately affecting Black and Hispanic voters, and perceptions of Democrats as too liberal on cultural issues. Despite the attention on Biden’s slippage among non-White voters, there has been less focus on his support among White voters, which remains stable compared to 2020.
Hispanic voters may be turning away from Democrats as successive generations assimilate into American society and vote based on conservative principles. Trump’s hardline immigration proposals and rhetoric could damage his support among Hispanics as more voters become aware of them. Black support for Trump may not reach the levels indicated by polls due to concerns over his racial bias and policies that target the Black community.
Looking ahead to the election, Democrats are hoping to create contrasts between Biden and Trump’s plans for a second term to recapture minority voters. However, voters of all races may primarily be looking backwards at their economic experiences under Trump’s presidency. The supreme irony is that Trump’s fate in the 2024 election may hinge on whether he can maintain support among Black and Hispanic voters, despite his history of stoking racial resentments with inflammatory language.
