A recent poll conducted by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom shows Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leading Republican incumbent Donald Trump by three points in the traditionally deep-red state of Iowa, just days before the election. Polling analyst Nate Silver called the poll “shocking” and praised Selzer for her accuracy in past predictions. The poll surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters between October 28-31, with a margin of error of 3.4 points, revealing that 47 percent supported Harris while 44 percent supported Trump.
The poll reflects strong support for Harris among women and older voters in Iowa, with Harris having a 20-point lead among women and a significant 63 to 28 lead among women over 65. Independent voters are also gravitating towards Harris, with independent women favoring her by 28 points. Following the release of the poll, Silver’s polling aggregator model shifted to favor Trump by 3.4 points, with Harris’s chances of winning Iowa increasing from 9 percent to 17 percent. However, other polling aggregators like FiveThirtyEight still give Trump a 93 percent chance of carrying Iowa, with Harris at 7 percent.
The shift in political sentiment in Iowa as indicated by the poll is a significant departure from earlier results, such as Selzer’s June survey that had Trump leading by 18 points over then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden. By September, Trump’s lead had narrowed to 4 points over Harris before flipping in her favor this month. The Trump campaign has disputed the poll results, calling them an “outlier” and pointing to another poll by Emerson College that shows Trump leading by 9 points. The campaign emphasized party registration trends favoring Republicans since 2020 and the consistency of Emerson’s results with previous exit polls.
Selzer’s decision to release the poll despite conflicting results from other pollsters has drawn attention, with Silver describing her as a “maverick” for going against the trend of releasing similar tie results. The poll has also influenced betting market odds, with Polymarket shifting in Harris’s favor following the poll’s release. Despite the mixed reactions to the poll, Selzer & Co. is highly regarded among pollsters in America, with a track record and methodology that have earned them a top ranking. The upcoming election will test the accuracy of these polls and provide further insight into the political landscape in Iowa.
