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The European Union is currently facing a crucial vote in the Parliament regarding the reform of its migration and asylum policy. The vote is scheduled to take place, and MEPs will go through a list of complex legislation that makes up the New Pact on Migration and Asylum. This comprehensive overhaul aims to establish common and predictable rules for managing the reception and relocation of asylum seekers. Despite initial optimism, party divisions are deepening, and the outcome of the vote is uncertain. The New Pact has faced various challenges since its proposal in September 2020, but a provisional agreement was reached in December between the Parliament and the Council. However, final approval is required from both institutions before the legislation can come into effect, with the April election being the last opportunity for MEPs to endorse the New Pact.

There is growing opposition to the New Pact from various political parties. Some lawmakers, such as those from Hungary’s Fidesz and far-right groups like the Identity and Democracy group, are against the reform. However, resistance is also emerging from within mainstream parties. Italian members of the Socialists & Democrats delegation are determined to vote down the New Pact, citing concerns about insufficient rights for migrants and lack of European solidarity. The populist Five Star Movement is also opposed to the reform, calling it useless for Italy and damaging for the rights of migrants. The looming vote has brought about divisions among political parties, with conflicting views on the effectiveness and fairness of the New Pact.

The Left and the Greens in the Parliament are also critical of the New Pact, arguing that it will degrade the quality of the asylum process and violate fundamental rights. Philippe Lamberts, co-chair of the Greens, expressed concerns about the focus on deterrence and the shift of responsibility to third countries, which could lead to collaboration with autocratic governments and warlords. The stringent provisions pushed by member states are seen as problematic by these parties, who fear the potential negative impact on migrants’ rights and the overall asylum process. The resistance from these groups further complicates the prospects of the New Pact passing in the Parliament.

The European People’s Party, the largest group in the Parliament, is discussing the latest developments and fortifying its position on the New Pact. The need for a simple majority in the 705-member hemicycle means the outcome of the vote hinges on the participation of MEPs. Although the five laws will be voted on separately, they are considered an indivisible package, with the failure of one law potentially leading to a collapse of the entire reform. The Council is unlikely to proceed with incomplete rules, as co-legislators have committed to maintaining a balanced approach until all regulations are adopted. The Parliament still has one more session in April where the New Pact could be put to a new vote if it does not pass in the upcoming vote, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the fate of the legislation.

The vote on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum represents a critical moment for the European Union, as it seeks to reform its policies and address the challenges of migration and asylum. The complexity of the legislation and the diverging viewpoints among political parties have created uncertainty about the outcome of the vote. Deepening party divisions, opposition from various groups, and concerns about the impact on migrants’ rights and the asylum process have cast a shadow over the prospects of the New Pact passing in the Parliament. The importance of this reform, as one of the biggest political files of the current mandate, underscores the need for a comprehensive and balanced approach to address the issues at hand. The upcoming vote will determine the future direction of EU migration and asylum policy, with implications for the reception and relocation of asylum seekers across member states.

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