In response to the military junta taking power in Niger last July, the US is negotiating an agreement to leave behind a small contingent of US forces while the majority of troops are being withdrawn. Conversations have begun with Nigerian officials to discuss the logistics of the withdrawal, including allowing US military flights in and out of the country. The withdrawal will occur in phases over several months, with the focus on removing equipment and personnel not deemed necessary for operations. Despite ongoing discussions, it is unlikely that a small number of troops will remain in Niger as the government has made it clear they want US forces out.
The situation in Niger is indicative of growing instability in Africa, where military coups have threatened American presence and provided opportunities for Russia to increase its influence. Niger ended its military agreement with the US in March, with Russian forces now operating in the same base as US troops. Chad has also threatened to cancel its agreement with the US, further destabilizing American influence in the region. General Michael Langley of US Africa Command has warned that a number of countries in Africa are at risk of being captured by Russia, who has invested more in information operations to spread their influence.
American officials are concerned that Russia’s immediate security assistance and lack of conditions when offering aid could sway African governments to align with them. This could potentially leave the US unable to operate safely in Africa while Russia gains influence. However, there is hope that the ineffectiveness of Russia’s offers may eventually become apparent to the African nations that have aligned with them. The fear is that growing instability in Africa could have significant security implications beyond the continent, potentially affecting safe US access to the Mediterranean.
Despite the challenges faced by the US in Africa, there is an opportunity to demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russia’s offers and disinformation campaigns over time. Some African governments that have aligned with Russia may find that the promises made do not materialize, leading to a reevaluation of their relationships. The US may find itself increasingly on the outside looking in, but this could also provide an opportunity to showcase the limitations of relying on Russian assistance in the long term. The hope is that African nations will realize the true nature of the partnerships they have formed and choose to align with the US for mutual benefit in the future.
