Days after a helicopter crash killed Iran’s president and other officials, the regime quickly detailed a succession plan to project stability. Ali Bagheri Kani, the new acting foreign minister, is viewed by US officials as a hardline figure who has been involved in sensitive negotiations with the US on various issues. Despite the sudden deaths, the Biden administration expects little change in Iran due to the supreme leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The crash has not significantly altered Iran’s foreign or domestic policies and is unlikely to have a major impact on regional volatility or conflicts.
The death of President Raisi has sparked debate about potential successors to Khamenei, with some analysts suggesting his son may have an increased chance of succession. The mysterious election process for the Supreme Leader makes it difficult to predict how the crash may influence the outcome. A window for domestic protests may open due to Raisi’s death, as elections must be held to choose a new president within 50 days. However, the regime will likely tightly control elections to prevent meaningful protests and discontent among the public.
Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts, particularly surrounding Israel’s actions in Gaza, continues amid the leadership reshuffle. Tehran’s support for proxies attacking US and Israeli interests has not increased following the crash. US officials believe Iran is seeking to balance its engagement in the conflict without escalating to direct conflict with Israel or the US. The death of Raisi and the elevation of Kani to foreign minister have not created any new opportunities for the US to engage with Iran on critical issues like its nuclear program and support for terrorism.
US officials have continued to engage in indirect talks with Iran, emphasizing the consequences of Iran’s actions and policies. The Biden administration views diplomacy as crucial in managing tensions with Iran to prevent dangerous miscalculations. Both sides have communicated through intermediaries multiple times since the outbreak of conflicts in the region. Despite the recent meeting in Oman, little progress has been made on resolving longstanding issues between the US and Iran. The US declined Iran’s request for help in recovery efforts after the crash for logistical reasons.
