Henry Olsen discusses the intricacies of polling and how the balance between Democrats and Republicans among voters, known as partisan preference, is crucial in unlocking the polls. Due to changes in technology and how people live, pollsters can no longer get truly random samples, leading to the need to weight the samples. Different pollsters may use various methods to weight their polls, resulting in a wide variation of outcomes.
Examining recent national polls, Olsen highlights the differences in partisan breakdown and how it can sway the results. Historically, Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in elections, but there has been a recent shift towards Republicans during Biden’s presidency. This shift is evident in polling data and voter-registration numbers, indicating a potential change in partisan attitudes that may not be reflected in the polls.
Olsen delves into the potential impact of partisan breakdown on the upcoming election. By analyzing the averages from different pollsters’ findings, he predicts that a Republican-leaning electorate could spell doom for Harris in the popular vote. Using Trump-era exit polls and historical data, Olsen calculates various scenarios and predicts a narrow win for Harris if the electorate is split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
The article discusses potential reasons why the predicted outcome may not align with the polling data. Despite shifts in partisan attitudes and voter-registration data favoring Republicans, polling results show a different story. Pollsters’ ability to predict turnout likelihood accurately and the possibility of Harris performing better among independents are additional factors that could affect the outcome of the election.
Olsen also looks at underlying demographic changes in key voter groups that could impact the election. Trump’s gains among blacks and Hispanics, paired with Harris’ potential appeal to college-educated whites, may influence the results in swing states differently than reflected in national polls. The electoral gap between the national popular vote and swing states, particularly in blue-wall states, is a key factor in predicting the election outcome.
While there are various factors at play and uncertainties in predicting the election, Olsen concludes that Trump has a better chance of prevailing based on the cumulative evidence available. Despite the intricacies of polling and demographic shifts, the analysis points towards a possible victory for Trump in the upcoming election. By considering historical trends, polling data, and demographic changes, Olsen provides a comprehensive view of the factors influencing the election outcome.
