The Ukrainian army has been on the defensive across the front line for most of the year, facing Russian attacks using various tactics. Peace talks with Moscow, previously taboo, are now being considered. President Zelenskyy has been forced to streamline mobilization procedures as the Russian offensive in Donbas continues. Recently, Ukrainian troops executed a sneak attack into Russia’s Kursk region, surprising Moscow and causing panic.
The Ukrainian offensive in Russia is a public humiliation for the once highly regarded Russian army. Despite being lethal, the Russian army’s competence has come into question due to a series of failures and mishaps. However, Russia’s mass advantage has allowed them to continue the conflict despite heavy casualties. The main issue for Ukraine is how to overcome Russia’s material advantages.
Kyiv’s decision to invade Russian territory and catch Moscow off guard is symbolic and has shifted the conversation away from Russian offensives. However, the practical implications of this offensive remain unclear. The objectives of the operation and its costs are not clearly defined. Speculations range from boosting morale of Ukrainian troops to creating a new front to divert Russian resources.
Zelenskyy’s vague explanation for the offensive being designed to punish the Russian aggressor raises questions about the overall strategy. Occupying Russian territory for negotiating leverage may be difficult as holding territory requires resources Ukraine may not have. The offensive is viewed as a gamble, hoping to force Russia to redeploy troops from Eastern Ukraine, which has not happened.
The successes on Russian soil could turn into a pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. The pace of Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions has not slowed down despite the incursion into Kursk. Ukraine may not have the resources to hold captured territory in the long term. The future implications of the offensive remain uncertain as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues.
