In 2004, the European Union expanded from 15 to 25 member states with the addition of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. This marked a significant increase in both population and territory, with the total GDP growing by about 9%. While the economic and societal benefits were evident, there were concerns in the political field, particularly with countries like Poland and Hungary and possibly Slovakia, violating the bloc’s common values and interests. Issues related to the rule of law and judicial independence have been particularly problematic, leading to the initiation of Article 7 procedures for Poland and Hungary.
However, despite these challenges, more countries are seeking to join the EU, with Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Turkey, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova vying for membership as recognised candidate countries. To be accepted, these countries must align their values and laws with those of the EU. The Western Balkans countries were recently presented with a growth plan and offered access to parts of the EU single market as a stepping stone to full membership. European Council President Charles Michel emphasized the importance of expanding the EU to ensure stability, especially in the face of Russia’s war with Ukraine, as a lack of economic development and prosperity in the region could lead to instability along the EU’s eastern flank.
There are concerns that new member states might violate the EU’s values and interests, particularly in the case of countries like Ukraine, which has experienced conflict and political turmoil. An exclusive IPSOS/Euronews poll found varying levels of support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU across member states, with Hungary being the most opposed. Despite these challenges, Ukraine, along with Moldova, has made significant progress towards EU membership following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The EU has agreed to start accession negotiations with Ukraine in late 2023, with requirements focused on strengthening anti-corruption measures, adopting lobbying laws, and reforming the legal framework for national minorities.
In response to the challenges facing the EU, there have been ongoing efforts to address issues related to the rule of law and judicial independence in countries like Poland and Hungary. Poland, under Article 7 since 2017, has introduced an “action plan” aimed at restoring judicial independence, while Hungary has been under Article 7 since 2018 for democratic backsliding. Other candidate countries are working towards meeting EU standards and values as part of their accession process. The EU must navigate these complex political and social dynamics as it continues to expand and adapt to new challenges and opportunities within its borders.
Ultimately, as the EU faces internal challenges and external threats, such as the war in Ukraine, the question of expansion becomes crucial to ensuring stability and prosperity. The EU must carefully consider the values and interests of potential new member states while also addressing existing issues within the bloc. By balancing the economic, political, and societal aspects of expansion, the EU can continue to grow and evolve while upholding its fundamental values and principles. The process of enlargement offers both opportunities and challenges for the EU as it seeks to strengthen its position in an ever-changing global landscape.
