A recent poll conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggests that voters in Georgia may be leaning back towards supporting Donald Trump in the upcoming election. The poll shows Trump leading Kamala Harris 47% to 44%, with 7% of respondents still undecided. This lead is just within the margin of error, but if these numbers hold, it could bring 16 electoral votes back into Trump’s column.
In 2016, Trump won Georgia but narrowly lost in 2020. The current poll results indicate that voters in the state may be swaying back towards the former president. The data show that very few voters who have already chosen a candidate are expecting to potentially change their minds, which suggests a high level of commitment to their choices.
While Harris has improved on the Democratic position in previous polls, she is still underperforming with key subgroups. She has reached only 86% support within her own party and 77% support among black voters, a group she has actively targeted during her campaign. However, 12% of black voters are still undecided, indicating that Trump’s efforts to appeal to this cohort may be successful as the election approaches.
Trump’s support in Georgia appears to be consolidating, with over 90% of GOP registrants backing him. Additionally, he has strong support among white voters and a majority of senior citizens. Despite this, there are some positive signs for Harris as well, including the perception among some Trump supporters that she will win the election.
The poll also shows that a plurality of respondents predict a Democratic victory, including 14% of Republicans and 8% of Democrats who believe Trump will prevail. The RealClearPolitics average for Georgia shows a much closer race, with Trump up by 0.2%, although this new AJC poll was not included in that metric. Overall, the data suggest that Georgia voters are more or less decided in their choices, which could have significant implications for the outcome of the election in the state.
