The National Hurricane Center has been tracking four systems in the Caribbean and Atlantic that have the potential to develop into tropical depressions or storms. As of the latest tropical outlook, none of these systems had high chances of development due to unfavorable conditions across the Atlantic basin. One tropical wave moving across the Caribbean has the highest potential for development, with a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression early next week as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Another tropical wave located 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has limited showers and thunderstorms, with a 10% chance of development in the next two to seven days. A third tropical wave in the Atlantic also has disorganized shower activity, with a 10% chance of development in the next two days and a 20% chance in the next seven days.
In addition to these tropical waves, forecasters are also monitoring a nontropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of North Carolina with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States. The NHC gave it a 10% chance of development in the next two days and a 20% chance in the next seven days. Despite the lack of named storms since Hurricane Ernesto dissipated three weeks ago, meteorologists with Colorado State University still anticipate an above-normal season overall, with conditions expected to become more favorable around the middle of September.
So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced five named storms: Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Chris, Hurricane Debby, and Hurricane Ernesto. The next names on the list are Francine, Gordon, and Helene. Before the recent lull in activity, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had upgraded its seasonal forecast, expecting a total of 17-24 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. The peak of hurricane season typically occurs from mid-August to October, and despite the current lull, forecasters remain vigilant and continue to monitor potential systems in the Atlantic and Caribbean.
