Vice President Kamala Harris’ presence at the Democratic National Convention was a sign of her improving the party’s brand, evidenced by the number of Senate candidates taking the stage at the convention. Despite Harris’ influence on the ticket, the basic shape of crucial Senate races remains unchanged, with Democrats still underperforming. Facing an unfavorable map, with seats in states won by former President Donald Trump, the party needs to secure one more seat to secure the majority.
Emerging differences in Senate races have resulted in shifts in the rankings of the seats most likely to flip, based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising, polling, and spending data. The top three states most likely to change hands are West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, followed by open seats in Michigan and Arizona. Seats without incumbents are harder to defend, making these races critical for the Democrats. As the campaign season ramps up post-Labor Day, both parties expect the numbers in their races to tighten.
West Virginia remains the seat most likely to flip, with the absence of Senator Joe Manchin creating additional challenges for Democrats. In Montana, Senator Jon Tester faces a tough reelection race in a state that Trump carried by significant margins. Tester is trying to overcome partisan leanings and Republican efforts to tie him to the Biden administration. Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown also faces a challenging reelection race against Republican businessman Bernie Moreno.
The race to replace retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow in Michigan has moved up due to the open-seat dynamic. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is facing a tough race against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. Arizona, another open-seat race, is a focus for Democrats after victories in 2020, but faces challenges due to the border issue in the state. Nevada, where Senator Jacky Rosen is running for a second term, faces tightening numbers as more voters tune into the election.
In Pennsylvania, Senator Bob Casey remains in a strong position against GOP challenger Dave McCormick. Casey’s campaign is attacking McCormick over his business ties to China, while Republicans are targeting Casey on immigration and trying to tie him to the Biden-Harris administration. Texas is the only Democratic offensive opportunity on the list, with Rep. Colin Allred challenging GOP Senator Ted Cruz. Allred is banking on support for abortion rights after Texas’ ban to gain an edge in the race.
Maryland, a solidly blue state, is seeing strong support for Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks to replace the retiring Senator Ben Cardin. Alsobrooks, a mentee of Vice President Harris, is focusing on issues rather than identity in her campaign. Larry Hogan, a popular Republican in the state, is trying to distance himself from the national GOP and signal a more moderate stance. The enthusiasm for Harris and Alsobrooks, as well as Hogan’s repositioning, are shaping the dynamics of the Senate race in Maryland.
