The guilty verdict against Donald Trump in his New York hush money trial has been a significant news story, but the impact on voters’ willingness to support Trump in the presidential election remains uncertain. Pre-conviction surveys and initial post-verdict polling have attempted to gauge the potential political fallout, but survey questions asking voters to explain how their choices are affected by a news event are difficult to interpret and often overstate potential movement in public opinion. Additionally, many people were not closely following the trial, leaving room for uncertainty regarding any repercussions.
Polling conducted during the trial and post-verdict has shown that a majority of registered voters do not believe a guilty verdict would make a difference to their vote. Some respondents said they would be more likely to vote for Trump, while others said they would be less likely. Among Trump’s current supporters, only a small percentage predicted they would be less likely to vote for him if he were convicted. These results align with other polling taken before the verdict and appear in line with one of the first post-verdict polls conducted by Reuters/Ipsos.
Responses to questions about the impact of the conviction often reveal existing feelings about the candidates rather than potential changes in voting behavior. Partisan divisions were evident in initial post-verdict reactions, with Democrats viewing the prosecution of Trump as enforcing laws fairly, while Republicans saw it as a politically motivated attempt to prevent Trump from returning to the White House. Independents and younger voters, who may be more persuadable, were found to be less likely to have closely followed the trial.
A CNN poll conducted in April found that most Trump supporters said they would continue to support him regardless of any criminal convictions, but a minority said they might reconsider their support. These individuals tended to be younger, politically independent, and ideologically moderate. The impact of the verdict and related developments on the campaign trail may take time to become evident, and the effects on voters’ preferences will likely be seen in polls of the presidential race.
It remains to be seen if the hush money verdict will lead to noticeable shifts in the presidential race. Poll results may show fluctuation, even in a stable race, making it difficult to spot modest effects from major news events. If Thursday’s decision becomes a lasting inflection point, it should be evident in the trendline between Biden and Trump. Ultimately, the ongoing political fallout from the guilty verdict against Trump will continue to be closely monitored as the presidential election approaches.
