Vice President Kamala Harris is preparing to run for president in the upcoming election, and looking back at the history of vice presidents who have sought the presidency can provide important context. While the vice presidency can serve as a stepping stone to the Oval Office, the success rate varies. Historically, only one sitting vice president since 1836 has run for president and won, which was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Harris, as the first woman, Black, and South Asian vice president in U.S. history, faces a unique set of challenges and opportunities.
Throughout history, 15 out of 49 vice presidents have gone on to become president either through the death or resignation of the president, or by winning an election in their own right after their vice presidential term ended. In these instances, the vice presidents transitioned into the presidency one way or another. Some examples include John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and Theodore Roosevelt. However, serving as vice president does not guarantee success in a presidential bid, as evidenced by those who tried and failed, such as Hubert Humphrey and John Nance Garner.
As Harris prepares for her potential presidential run, experts are examining the pros and cons of her vice presidential status. Serving as vice president can offer advantages such as party support and national recognition, but it can also come with negative perceptions. While it was common in early U.S. history for vice presidents to become president, a gap from 1836 to 1988 saw no sitting vice president who received their party’s nomination go on to win an election. The circumstances surrounding how a vice president transitions to the presidency can play a significant role in their electoral success.
The unique situation surrounding Kamala Harris’s potential presidential bid makes it difficult to draw direct comparisons to past vice presidential campaigns. Political experts note that circumstances that thrust the vice president into the spotlight, such as a sudden presidential withdrawal or death, can impact their chances of winning the presidency. Harris will need to navigate her own path and define herself on her own terms, potentially leveraging popular aspects of the Biden administration’s agenda while distancing herself from less favorable aspects in order to secure a victory in November. As she continues to build her platform and campaign, Harris faces the challenge of overcoming the historical trends and setting herself apart as a viable presidential candidate.
