The impacts of climate change are being felt worldwide, but how will it affect your hometown specifically? A web application from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science allows users to explore how the climate in their city may change in the future. By comparing the expected future climate in a particular location with the current climate of another familiar place, users can gain a better understanding of what may be in store for their own community.
For instance, residents of Washington, D.C., may need to travel to northern Louisiana to experience the climate that their city is expected to have by 2080, with summers projected to be 11.5°F warmer. Similarly, individuals in Shanghai, China, may need to travel to northern Pakistan to get a sense of what their city’s climate could be like in 2080. This shift towards warmer climates is a global trend, with cities in the northern hemisphere becoming more similar to those closer to the equator.
Spatial ecologist Professor Matthew Fitzpatrick used climate-analog mapping, a statistical technique that matches expected future climate conditions with current climate data from other locations, to provide a localized perspective on climate change. By using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and considering different emission scenarios, the web application offers insights into how temperatures may change over the next 30 years.
The web application provides results for both high-emission scenarios, which could lead to a warming of around 9 degrees F by the end of the century, and for reduced emissions scenarios aligned with the goals of the Paris Climate Accord. By illustrating potential climate outcomes under different circumstances, the app aims to help users understand the urgency of addressing climate change and the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Fitzpatrick hopes that this tool will contribute to the conversation around climate change and help individuals grasp the significant impacts that are at stake. By mapping the best matches for different emission scenarios and climate models, as well as comparing future climates with present conditions around the world, users can gain a clearer picture of how their hometown may be affected by climate change in the coming decades.
As the planet warms and weather patterns shift, understanding how climate change can impact local communities is crucial for effective planning and adaptation. By using the web application to explore potential future climate scenarios for their city, individuals can start to prepare for the changes that lie ahead and consider how they can contribute to efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change on a global scale.
