The substitution of Vice President Kamala Harris for President Joe Biden on the ballot in the upcoming November election has reset the presidential race. This change is expected to have a significant impact on House and Senate races as well, given that both chambers of Congress are narrowly divided at the moment. Republicans currently hold a slim advantage in the House, while Democrats narrowly control the Senate. With Harris now on the ticket, the dynamics of these races could shift in unpredictable ways.
The change at the top of the ticket could potentially shift Senate races in interesting ways, as the pressure on Biden to step aside was due in part to concerns about his impact on down-ballot races. Early signals suggest that Harris as the nominee may be giving Democratic incumbents a sense of relief, as she is performing better against former President Donald Trump in key demographic groups such as young voters, female voters, and Black voters. Candidates like Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin have publicly shown support for Harris, while others like Sen. Jon Tester have not, indicating potential challenges ahead in states like Montana.
The Senate GOP campaign arm has already indicated that attacks on Biden’s mental fitness did not necessarily translate to down-ballot races, suggesting that Harris may be a bigger target for Republicans due to her policies being viewed as extreme. In some states like Pennsylvania, the GOP Senate nominee is already using footage from 2019 to portray Harris as the most liberal nominee in US history. The battle for control of the Senate remains unpredictable, as both parties strategize on how to leverage their candidates and policies.
The House map differs from the Senate, with competitive districts concentrated in traditionally blue states like New York and California. The House playing field is expected to be influenced by races in crossover districts, where Republicans represent districts Biden won or Democrats represent districts Trump won. Since Republicans are more on the defense in many of these districts, Democrats are hoping to pick up the net gain of four seats they need to gain control of the House.
The dynamics that will affect control of the House are likely to be shaped by the national environment closer to the fall election, including factors like the state of the presidential race, economic concerns, and potential foreign crises. Candidate quality and fundraising also play a crucial role in House races, as strong candidates with independent brands have a better chance of withstanding headwinds. Given the closely divided nature of the House, these factors will play a critical role in determining the outcome of the races.
Looking ahead, remaining House primaries will be consequential in determining matchups in competitive seats. Democrats are expected to lose one Senate seat in West Virginia, but they have opportunities to go on the offense in states like Texas and Florida. Texas, in particular, presents a competitive race between Rep. Colin Allred and GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, with the potential for Democratic gains in a traditionally red state. The outcome of Senate races in key states like Michigan will provide insight into the national political landscape and the potential for changes in control of Congress.
