Forecasters are predicting a particularly aggressive hurricane season in 2024, with the state of Florida likely to bear the brunt of the storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that 17 to 25 named storms will hit the Atlantic basin, with eight to 13 becoming hurricanes and four to seven reaching major hurricane status. This season has an 85 percent chance of being above-normal, with an average season typically seeing 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Other forecasters, such as the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team, have also made similar predictions for the upcoming hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1.
Florida, particularly Palm Beach County where former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate is located, has one of the highest chances of being impacted by hurricanes this season. The CSU’s probability estimates show that Florida has a 96 percent chance of being impacted by a named storm this year, with Palm Beach County specifically having a 61 percent chance. Other top Florida counties with high probabilities include Monroe County, Miami-Dade, Brevard, Broward, and Collier. Additionally, states along the Gulf and East coasts such as North Carolina, Louisiana, Georgia, Texas, and Alabama also have high probabilities of being struck by named storms this season.
There has been an influx of new residents to southern Florida in recent years, with 137,000 residents relocating to Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties since 2020. This population growth adds to the vulnerability of the region, as more people are at risk of being impacted by hurricanes during the upcoming season. Forecasters at the University of Pennsylvania Earth and Environmental Science department predict there will be 33 named storms, while researchers at North Carolina State University estimate 15 to 20 named storms for the 2024 hurricane season.
Given the high probability of impact by named storms this season, it is crucial for residents and officials in Florida and other at-risk states to be prepared and have emergency plans in place. As the hurricane season approaches, it is important to stay informed about weather updates and evacuation orders to ensure the safety of individuals and communities. With the forecasted high number of storms, it is essential to take precautions and make necessary preparations to mitigate the potential impact of hurricanes on vulnerable areas. It is also important for officials to provide support and resources to those who may be affected by the storms, especially in areas with a high probability of being struck.
