Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Donald Trump at a press conference, citing a lack of a realistic path to victory. Kennedy Jr. encouraged voters in key battleground states to support Trump, and took steps to remove his name from the ballot. However, multiple states rejected these requests, meaning he will remain on the ballot in up to 23 states, including crucial swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Experts predict that Kennedy Jr.’s presence on the ballot could impact the race by up to 16 points in swing states where he remains a contender. Although polls show little change in support for Harris and Trump in head-to-head contests without third-party candidates, Kennedy Jr.’s high polling numbers in some states like Michigan and New Mexico could potentially affect the outcome of the election. Pollsters suggest that Kennedy Jr.’s continued presence on the ballot may complicate the race, especially in states where he garners significant support.
Despite Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal from the race, some analysts believe his remaining presence on the ballot in specific swing states may pose a challenge for Trump. Kennedy Jr.’s support in Michigan could potentially draw votes away from Trump, giving disaffected Republicans an alternative choice aligned with Trump’s values. However, others argue that Kennedy Jr.’s impact on the election outcome is likely to be minimal as his polling numbers have declined alongside his campaign contributions and media appearances.
Experts estimate that Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal could lead to a boost for Harris in the polls, as voters who previously supported him may gravitate towards the Democratic candidate in response to his endorsement of Trump. Additionally, polling data from the Pew Research Center suggests that after Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, many of Kennedy Jr.’s supporters shifted their allegiance to Harris over Trump. As the election date approaches, it is expected that support for third-party candidates like Kennedy Jr. will decrease.
Overall, while Kennedy Jr.’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Trump may have initially seemed significant, his remaining presence on the ballot in key swing states is not expected to have a substantial impact on the election outcome. While his high polling numbers in some states may influence the race in specific areas, the overall consensus among experts is that Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy is unlikely to be a game-changer in the final outcome of the presidential election.
