A new study suggests that the rising earth beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet will likely play a key role in future sea level rise. Despite appearing stationary, most solid ground is actually undergoing deformation, sinking, and rising due to various environmental factors. In Antarctica, the melting of glacial ice reduces the weight on the bedrock below, allowing it to rise. The interaction between the rising earth and the ice sheet above it and its impact on sea level rise have not been extensively studied. The study, led by Terry Wilson, predicts that under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, land uplift could reduce Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise by about 40%, offering some hope for mitigating the effects of global sea level rise.
The research team developed a 3D model of Earth’s interior using data collected by the Antarctic Network (ANET) of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) project. This model was used to simulate various scenarios to predict how Antarctica’s ice sheet and global sea level rise could evolve until the year 2500. The study suggests that if humans can reduce carbon emissions and slow global warming, the upward shifts in the solid earth could slow ice melt from land to ocean, preserving more of the ice sheet. Conversely, if emissions continue at current rates, ice retreat will outpace uplift, leading to accelerated sea level rise and exacerbating the projected impacts on populated coastlines.
The researchers note that the solid earth beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet is changing shape rapidly, with land uplift from reduced ice occurring in decades rather than over thousands of years. This unprecedented rate of change highlights the urgency of addressing climate change. The study also emphasizes the importance of understanding how different carbon emissions scenarios will impact coastlines around the world, particularly for the nearly 700 million people living in coastal regions who will be most affected by rising seas due to Antarctic ice loss. Mitigating environmental conditions like atmospheric and ocean warming is crucial to protecting vulnerable regions such as small island nations.
The study’s detailed incorporation of data from Antarctica, including GPS and seismic measurements, provides valuable insights into the relationship between the solid earth and the processes occurring on its surface. By analyzing GPS observations, the researchers found that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently experiencing solid earth uplift at a rate of about 5 centimeters per year, five times faster than North America. The study underscores the need for continued data collection to make accurate predictions about the future of our planet, emphasizing the importance of individual, national, and global actions in addressing climate change.
Wilson and her colleagues stress that while there is uncertainty in every model and prediction, advancing our ability to make more certain predictions is crucial for addressing the rapid changes our planet is experiencing. The study was a collaboration between researchers from various institutions and was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The findings highlight the interconnected nature of the earth’s systems and the critical need for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on coastal communities and global sea level rise.