In a recent article, Pierre-Alexandre Balland discusses President Macron’s bold decision to dissolve the National Assembly following the far-right surge in the European elections. Macron’s call for new legislative elections on 30 June and 7 July has been seen as a risky move, with some describing it as desperate. However, Balland argues that this calculated risk could have higher rewards than inaction. By returning to the voters, Macron aims to counter the narrative that the far right is taking over France and show that European election results do not necessarily reflect wider political sentiment. This move could also mobilize those concerned about the rise of the far right.
Historically, far-right parties in France have struggled to replicate their success in EU elections at the national level. The National Rally, previously known as the National Front, has secured victories in European Parliament elections but has not been able to translate that success in French legislative elections. The two-round electoral system in French parliamentary elections presents a significant barrier to far-right parties, as voters often unite behind moderate candidates in the second round to prevent far-right victories. Additionally, the local-centric nature of French parliamentary elections favors parties with broad, evenly spread support, which the National Rally may struggle to achieve quickly.
Macron’s decision to call for new legislative elections is a strategic move to catch the National Rally off-guard and highlight any inconsistencies in their program. If the far-right were to win the French legislative elections, it would have a challenging road ahead governing effectively. The success or failure of the National Rally in government could greatly impact their future electoral prospects in 2027. Macron’s decision, therefore, appears to take into account both the likelihood of the far-right winning and the potential consequences of their governance.
While the National Rally’s success in the European elections is concerning, it is unlikely that they would be able to replicate this at the national level in French legislative elections. Macron’s strategy to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections could help curtail the far right’s momentum in both France and globally. It is a calculated risk that aims to show the French public that the far-right surge in the European elections does not necessarily reflect the sentiments of the broader population. Ultimately, Macron’s decision could have significant implications for the future of French politics and the rise of far-right parties in Europe.
