As 2024 comes to a close, the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, with new battle lines drawn after Russia made advances in the east and Kyiv opened a battlefront in Russia itself. The conflict, which has extended beyond Europe and the Middle East, now includes geopolitical rivalries in the Indo-Pacific playing out through proxy in Ukraine. The U.S. has provided significant military aid to Ukraine, with Congress passing a $61 billion aid package in April, bringing U.S. financial commitments to $183 billion since the invasion began in 2022.
The debate over military aid to Ukraine highlighted divisions in Congress and Kyiv’s dependence on Washington’s support. The Biden administration faced pressure to lift strike bans on long-range missiles, which were eventually lifted in November. As U.S. political uncertainty grew in the lead-up to the presidential election, questions arose about the impact of another Trump presidency on Kyiv and its geopolitical consequences. Meanwhile, NATO leaders predicted an end to the era of 2% defense spending targets.
Russia intensified its aerial attacks on Ukraine in 2024, targeting towns and cities, particularly in eastern Ukraine. The escalation in military operations led to heavy casualties for Russian forces and record numbers of drone strikes against Ukraine. Despite facing setbacks in some offensives, Russia maintained a strong defense budget, allocating a significant portion of its annual expenditures to national security and defense. The G-7 finalized a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, paid using frozen Russian assets, and the U.S. sent $1 billion in frozen asset profits to Kyiv.
In a surprising move, Ukraine launched a ground incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August, diverting forces from eastern Ukraine and pushing further into Russian territory. North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Russia marked the first instance of foreign forces joining the conflict. North Korea’s involvement, along with accusations of support from Iran and China, underscored international divisions and alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Japan and South Korea increased aid to Ukraine, viewing the Russia-North Korea alliance as a threat.
As the year came to a close, Russia targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with drone and missile attacks on Christmas Day, causing widespread blackouts in multiple regions. President Biden vowed to fast-track military assistance to Ukraine in the final days of his term, aiming to stop the ongoing conflict. Former President Trump, now re-elected, acknowledged the challenges of ending the war and expressed efforts to secure a peace deal between Putin and Zelenskyy. The road to peace remains uncertain, with conflicting interests and complex geopolitical dynamics at play.
