The European Union has set a goal to be carbon-neutral by 2050 as part of the Green Deal, a comprehensive plan agreed upon four years ago. However, an analysis conducted by an international team of scientists led by Klaus Hubacek reveals that while the Green Deal will decrease carbon emissions within Europe, it will also lead to an increase in carbon emissions outside of the EU. This increase is more than double the amount of carbon emissions saved by the Green Deal, as outlined in a study published in Nature Sustainability.
The Green Deal aims to fully decarbonize Europe by 2050 and includes measures for clean energy production and ecological restoration. Through full supply chain analyses of the policy documents supporting the Green Deal, Hubacek and his colleagues found that the current implementation of the Green Deal will result in a significant increase in emissions in countries outside the EU, particularly in the land, land use change, and forestry sector. One example highlighted by Hubacek is the plan to increase biodiversity in Europe by planting three billion trees, which may lead to the conversion of land into cropland in other countries to offset the loss of agricultural land in Europe.
While the Green Deal includes measures to prevent the import of products that contribute to deforestation, such as meat or animal feed, Hubacek remains skeptical of the effectiveness of these regulations. The Green Deal also encourages organic farming, but the impact on land use is not well understood. However, the scientists also identified potential solutions to enhance overall carbon reductions, such as adopting a plant-based “planetary health diet” and phasing out food-based biofuels within the EU. Additionally, assisting developing regions in increasing agricultural efficiency could help reduce land use and carbon emissions.
Despite the negative impacts highlighted by the analysis, the scientists believe that the shortcomings of the Green Deal can be remedied. By incorporating measures such as the planetary health diet and phasing out food-based biofuels, the EU could mitigate the negative effects on the global environment. Hubacek stresses the importance of acknowledging that there is no free lunch in terms of resource consumption and that a shift towards consuming less is necessary. Urgent action is needed as global warming and other planetary boundaries are being surpassed, underscoring the importance of implementing effective measures to address climate change.
Overall, the analysis of the European Green Deal undertaken by Hubacek and his team sheds light on the potential pitfalls of the current implementation and highlights the need for adjustments to ensure that the EU’s goals are achieved without causing harm to the global environment. By adopting more sustainable and environmentally friendly practices, such as the planetary health diet and phasing out food-based biofuels, the EU can work towards meeting its carbon neutrality target by 2050 while minimizing negative impacts on the rest of the world.