The current political unrest in Venezuela has resulted in a high toll, with at least 23 deaths and 1,581 arrests since the July election, according to human rights groups. Some critics suggest that if President Maduro continues to lose popular support, the Venezuelan military could turn against him. Even the opposition’s presidential candidate has urged the security forces to uphold their constitutional duties and avoid repressing the people. Historians point to past instances, such as the downfall of dictator Perez Jimenez, where the military played a crucial role in removing a leader.
However, experts believe that the military’s support for Maduro remains strong, at least for now. There is speculation that some military leaders could face prosecution without Maduro’s protection, which might weaken their loyalty to him. Despite calls for the military to desert Maduro, Gunson, a Venezuela expert, believes that the high command is unlikely to do so in the near future as it would threaten their own positions. The military recently reaffirmed its support for Maduro amid the election crisis, pledging loyalty to him as the commander-in-chief.
Despite the outward display of support for Maduro, there are indications that the military might not be as unified as it seems. Gunson suggests that members of the security forces may sympathize with the opposition, as seen in the widespread support for the opposition coalition among the population. Many members of the armed forces have also deserted in recent years, with some even leaving the country. This indicates that there could be internal divisions within the military, which could potentially impact Maduro’s grip on power.
The strength of the opposition in Venezuela has given hope to many, including those who witnessed the fall of past authoritarian leaders like Perez Jimenez. One woman, Tenreiro, who witnessed the downfall of Perez Jimenez over 60 years ago, expresses her desire to see another authoritarian leader topple in her lifetime. Despite the challenges and uncertainties ahead, the determination and resilience of the opposition in Venezuela continue to inspire hope for a better future in the country.
Overall, the political situation in Venezuela remains volatile, with a precarious balance of power between President Maduro and the opposition. The role of the military in determining the country’s future remains a critical factor, with speculation about potential divisions within its ranks. While the opposition’s strength and resilience provide hope for change, the outcome of the current crisis is still unclear. The ongoing protests, arrests, and violence underscore the urgent need for a peaceful and democratic resolution to the political unrest in Venezuela.
