As the closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump approach, the outcome could have significant implications for the 2024 election between Trump and current President Biden. Despite Trump holding a slight advantage in national polls and crucial battleground states, he faces nearly three dozen state felony charges in his trial in New York City, a historic event for a former president. Democratic pollster Chris Anderson and Republican pollster Neil Newhouse agreed that a guilty verdict is unlikely to significantly alter the election landscape, as attitudes towards both candidates are firmly entrenched.
The charges against Trump include falsifying business records related to payments made to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election to keep quiet about an alleged affair. Both Daniels and Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, testified for the prosecution, drawing extensive media coverage and public attention. Trump has vehemently denied the allegations, accusing the trial of being a sham directed by the White House and Department of Justice. The former president has also faced fines and threats of jail for violating a gag order meant to protect witnesses and jurors.
A recent Fox News poll found that roughly half of voters believe Trump committed illegal acts concerning campaign finance laws, while a significant majority of Trump’s supporters believe he did nothing wrong. The survey also showed a partisan divide on whether Trump’s legal treatment was fair. However, most voters indicated that a guilty verdict in Trump’s trial would not affect their vote for president, with a majority of Trump supporters stating they would continue to support him even if found guilty. Pollster Chris Anderson compared a potential guilty verdict to the Access Hollywood scandal that briefly impacted Trump’s 2016 campaign.
Despite the attention surrounding Trump’s trial, both Anderson and Newhouse believe that the outcome is unlikely to significantly sway voters, as opinions on Trump and Biden are firmly established. While a guilty verdict may temporarily impact Trump’s poll numbers, especially among less committed supporters, it may ultimately have little lasting effect on the election. Newhouse emphasized that those who support Trump view the trial as a political witch hunt, while his opponents already believe him guilty. Anderson noted that a not guilty verdict for Trump would allow him to claim vindication but would still be unlikely to significantly benefit his campaign.
In conclusion, the outcome of former President Trump’s criminal trial is expected to have limited impact on the 2024 election between Trump and President Biden. Despite facing numerous felony charges, a guilty verdict is not anticipated to significantly alter the presidential race, as attitudes towards both candidates are deeply entrenched. Polling data suggests that most voters do not believe Trump’s legal issues will affect their voting decisions, with a majority of Trump supporters indicating they would continue to support him regardless of the trial outcome. Ultimately, while the trial represents a significant historical event, its influence on the election is likely to be minimal.
