New polling data on observant Catholics reveals significant divisions among the faithful regarding their preferences for the upcoming presidential election. While Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are the key contenders, the majority of the 1,172 Catholic voters surveyed in seven states view Trump as the lesser of two evils, echoing a sentiment expressed by Pope Francis recently. This could be advantageous for Trump as the former president holds a 4-point lead over Harris in terms of being seen as the lesser evil. Specifically, Trump is favored in four of the states surveyed, with a notable 16-point lead in Wisconsin.
Ethnicity plays a significant role in these preferences, with Hispanic Catholics largely favoring Harris as the lesser evil by a wide margin, while white respondents tend to favor Trump. When it comes to overall presidential preference, 50% of Catholics surveyed indicated a preference for Trump, giving him a 5-point lead over Harris. Trump is the favored candidate in five of the seven states surveyed, with his strongest support coming from Michigan and Wisconsin. Harris performs better in Nevada, where she is preferred by Catholics by a narrow margin.
The data also suggests a divergence from the 2020 election results, with Harris outperforming Biden among Catholic voters in this sample. While Biden lost the Catholic vote, Harris is more competitive against Trump, particularly among Hispanic Catholics. It remains to be seen if any divine intervention in the form of a message from above could sway some voters in their final decision on this matter.
The survey also revealed that a majority of Catholic voters (52%) plan to pray before casting their votes, indicating a strong connection between faith and politics for many of the respondents. However, some states, such as North Carolina, show even higher rates of prayer before voting. It is notable that a plurality of voters in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania do not pledge to say a rosary before marking their ballots, suggesting variations in religious practices among Catholic voters in different regions.
The polling, conducted by Mercury Analytics between October 3 and 8, provides valuable insights into the preferences and beliefs of observant Catholics in key swing states. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.86%, indicating a relatively high level of confidence in the data collected. As the election draws closer, these findings shed light on the complex interplay between religion, ethnicity, and political preferences among Catholic voters, highlighting the importance of these factors in shaping electoral outcomes. Ultimately, the survey results suggest that Trump holds an edge among Catholic voters as the preferred candidate, with considerations of the lesser evil and divine guidance playing prominent roles in their decision-making process.
