A recent Gallup poll revealed that a majority of Americans believe they are worse off than they were four years ago, with 52% of respondents stating that they and their families are in a worse position today. The survey was conducted between Sept. 16-28 among 1,023 Americans, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. These results are reminiscent of a similar survey conducted in 1992, when Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush. Party affiliation seemed to influence responses, with 72% of Democrats feeling better off, compared to 35% of independents and just 7% of Republicans.
The poll also found that participants’ perceptions of being “better off” were closely tied to the state of the U.S. economy. Gallup’s monthly Economic Confidence Index (ECI) was at -26, with 39% of respondents feeling they were in a better financial position four years ago. The ECI has mostly been negative over the past four years, with several scores in 2022 reaching levels not seen since the 2007-2009 recession. Inflation has been a significant concern for Americans, with 46% describing current economic conditions as “poor” and 62% believing the economy is “getting worse.”
Top issues on voters’ minds as Election Day approaches include the economy, immigration, government, and inflation. A Fox News poll conducted in October found that the economy continues to be the most important issue influencing voters’ choice for president, with 40% ranking it as their top concern. Immigration and abortion were also significant issues, while issues such as election integrity, health care, climate change, guns, crime, and foreign policy were less prioritized by voters.
The history of the ECI, which has been tracked by Gallup since 1992, indicates that economic factors play a crucial role in voters’ decision-making. The largest ECI score recorded was +56 in January 2000, while the lowest was -72 in October 2008. The organization noted that former President Trump’s loss in the 2020 election to President Biden showed that non-economic factors were paramount to voters that year. Despite relatively low unemployment and steady economic growth, Americans continue to express concerns about inflation and the overall state of the economy.
Overall, the Gallup survey and other polls reflect a nuanced picture of American voters’ perspectives as they head to the polls. The economy remains a dominant issue in the minds of voters, with many expressing feelings of being worse off than they were four years ago. Party affiliation appears to shape these views to some extent, with Democrats generally feeling more positive than independents or Republicans. As Election Day approaches, candidates will need to address these economic concerns and other key issues to win over voters and secure their support.
