In a new research note, the head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, Geoffrey Kendrick, discussed the potential performance of various cryptocurrencies depending on the outcome of the U.S. election. If former President Donald Trump were to win, Kendrick predicts that Solana, a cryptocurrency launched in 2020, could outperform both Ethereum and Bitcoin. He believes that under a Trump administration, Solana could soar 400%, while Ethereum could rise 300% and Bitcoin could increase 200% by 2025. This would result in Solana reaching over $700, Ethereum over $9,650, and Bitcoin over $185,000. Kendrick points out that a Trump administration is generally viewed as more supportive of the digital assets ecosystem, making the introduction of a Solana ETF more likely under Trump than under Vice President Kamala Harris.
However, Kendrick also noted that despite his positive outlook on Solana under a Trump presidency, its current valuation appears to be “richly priced” compared to Ethereum based on various metrics. These include Solana’s high market capitalization-to-transaction fee ratio, overall net issuance of the token, and real staking yield. Kendrick explained that for Solana to justify its valuation, its throughput would need to increase significantly, potentially by 100-400 times over the next few years. He believes that this growth seems more reasonable under a Trump administration that would likely be more friendly to the overall digital asset ecosystem, compared to a Harris administration.
In contrast, if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the U.S. election, Kendrick expects that Bitcoin would outperform Ethereum, and Ethereum would outperform Solana in 2025. Under a Harris administration, Kendrick forecasts that Ethereum could reach around $7,000 compared to $10,000 under a Trump presidency. Currently, Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,410. While Kendrick acknowledges the potential for performance variations based on the election outcome, he highlights the uncertainty and complexity of predicting market movements based on political events.
Solana, like Ethereum, is designed to be faster than other cryptocurrencies and allows developers to create applications more easily compared to Bitcoin, which is mainly used for transactions. Kendrick’s analysis suggests that under a Trump administration, Solana could see significant growth due to a more favorable environment for the digital assets ecosystem. However, he also acknowledges that Solana’s current valuation may be a concern, as it could require substantial throughput growth to sustain its price. Regardless of the election outcome, Kendrick’s research provides insights into the potential performance of different cryptocurrencies in the coming years based on the political landscape. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve and adapt to changing regulatory environments, analysts and investors will continue to monitor these developments closely.
