Somalia’s government is concerned about the withdrawal of African peacekeepers and warning of a potential security vacuum that could be exploited by al-Shabab fighters. There are negotiations about transitioning from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to a smaller new force, but the process has proven to be complicated with different mandates and concerns from various parties. The government has requested a delay in the withdrawal of troops to align with post-ATMIS mission planning and prevent any security gaps.
The European Union and United States are the top funders of the AU force in Somalia, but they are seeking to reduce peacekeeping operations due to concerns about long-term financing and sustainability. Somalia is urging for a conditions-based drawdown to avoid creating a security vacuum, but negotiations are ongoing to finalize the details of the new force and its mandate. Worried neighbours, including Uganda and Kenya, are concerned about the withdrawal and potential implications for regional security, expressing fears about a resurgence of al-Shabab.
Despite setbacks in the fight against al-Shabab, the Somali government believes its forces have made progress and are capable of confronting the armed group with limited external support. The withdrawal of peacekeepers could make it harder to maintain control of territory, but the government is confident in its ability to handle the security situation. The security forces have been expanded in recent years, and there have been improvements in security in areas like Mogadishu, with residents noting a decline in violence and a sense of normalcy returning.
International support has been crucial for Somalia’s security, with countries like the US and EU providing significant assistance to combat terrorism and support peacekeeping efforts. However, resources are under strain, and donors are looking to reduce their contributions in the medium term. The financing for the new mission will need to be addressed once a proposed size and mandate are agreed upon by Somalia and the AU. The US and EU are focusing on reducing overall spending on peacekeeping operations and shifting towards bilateral support, raising questions about the future of international support for Somalia’s security.
