Former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that there would be no negotiations with Ukraine until they are thrown out of Russian territory. This contradicted Putin’s statement at the Eastern Economic Forum where he expressed openness to negotiations. Several countries have emerged as potential mediators for peace, with Austria proposing to host peace talks due to its strong diplomatic services and political acceptability to both parties. However, expert Peter Rough believes that Austria’s statements are influenced by an upcoming federal election and do not hold significant weight in the context of the conflict.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has positioned himself as a mediator for peace in Ukraine, despite being a critic of Western military aid to the country. Orbán’s statements of a potential breakthrough in peace negotiations have been met with skepticism, with Rough stating that Hungary’s hostility towards Ukraine makes it an unlikely mediator. Additionally, Russia has mentioned China, Brazil, and India as potential mediators, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressing readiness to play a role in ending the conflict. However, it remains unclear if India or any other country will be accepted as a mediator by all parties involved in the conflict.
There has been criticism of Turkey’s pivot towards Russia and China, as well as its interest in joining the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. While Turkey has indicated its willingness to act as an intermediary in the Ukraine war, the Kremlin has rejected this proposal. Turkey’s involvement in negotiating safe grain shipments from Ukraine’s Black Sea port and supplying weapons to Kyiv have raised questions about its potential role as a mediator. However, it is believed that heavy American and Western European participation would be necessary for any serious peace talks to be successful.
At a peace summit in Switzerland attended by Ukraine, Kyiv expressed reluctance to engage in direct negotiations with Russia. Retired U.S. Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson believes that the U.S. would play a significant role in any mediation efforts, potentially alongside countries like Indonesia, New Zealand, Brazil, or Mexico. It is anticipated that after the U.S. elections, a more formal mediation process involving countries like India or Turkey could take place. Ultimately, the resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the willingness of all parties to engage in meaningful negotiations in pursuit of lasting peace.
