A new study by researcher Richard Boylan of Rice University in Houston, Texas, US, published in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on August 28, 2024, has found that geographic disparities in rates of homicides in the US have actually decreased in recent decades, counter to expectations. Despite growing gaps in economic and social well-being between Americans living in different regions since the 1970s, there has been a decrease in homicide rate disparities in the United States.
Researchers have long hypothesized that areas with reduced economic and social well-being would experience higher rates of violent crime. Factors such as lower tax bases leading to decreased police protection and lack of job opportunities potentially fueling involvement in criminal activities have been postulated to contribute to higher rates of violent crime in impoverished areas. However, few studies have systematically examined the potential links between geographic economic disparities and disparities in violent crime rates.
Boylan’s analysis utilized data from the National Center for Health Statistics to compare homicide rates between the US’s 741 commuting zones, encompassing both urban and rural areas. These distinct geographic areas have seen a decrease in disparities in homicide rates since the 1970s, despite increasing economic and social inequalities across the country. Boylan’s findings suggest that factors such as disparities in policing, incarceration, and the share of the population that is African American have also decreased, potentially contributing to the decreased discrepancies in homicide rates.
One potential explanation proposed by Boylan is that law enforcement bodies at the state, county, and federal levels may have played a role in mitigating the anticipated violence-boosting effects of worsening social and economic conditions in certain areas. For example, in economically challenged cities where local police departments may have been disbanded, intervention by larger law enforcement entities could have helped ensure continued prosecution of violent crimes. Future research could delve further into whether these factors have indeed influenced the decrease in geographic disparities in homicide rates.
In contrast to the findings related to homicide rates, geographic disparities in US life expectancies have actually increased since the 1960s, likely due to specific state policies such as tobacco taxes and Medicaid expansions. Despite the perception that job losses in regions like the rust belt have led to increased inequality in crime, Boylan’s study provides empirical evidence to the contrary, showing a steady decrease in inequalities across different parts of the country since the 1960s alongside decreases in disparities in policing, incarceration, and the demographics of the population.
The research by Boylan sheds light on a complex interplay of factors that have influenced geographic disparities in violent crime rates in the United States. Contrary to expectations, the study reveals a decrease in discrepancies in homicide rates between different regions despite growing economic and social disparities since the 1970s. By examining data from over 700 commuting zones, Boylan highlights the importance of considering factors such as policing, incarceration, and demographic changes in understanding the trends in violent crime rates across geographic regions. As future research continues to explore the underlying causes of these trends, Boylan’s work provides valuable insights into the evolving landscape of violent crime in the United States.