A recent poll conducted by Fort Hays State University between September 26 and October 16 found that Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing former president Donald Trump by only 5 points in Kansas, a state that has historically leaned Republican. The poll surveyed 645 adults, with 48.2% of 517 registered voters supporting Trump and 43.2% supporting Harris. While some other polls have shown Trump leading by larger margins, this poll may suggest a narrowing of Trump’s Republican base in a state that has not voted for a Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson 60 years ago. The positive views on the economy among Kansas voters may explain the boost in support for Democrats, as the percentage of those believing the Kansas economy is weakening has decreased in recent years.
Despite the positive economic outlook, the poll also found that inflationary pressures have affected half of the respondents’ families a great deal, and 59% were dissatisfied with President Joe Biden’s performance. Additionally, the survey indicated that Kansas voters’ views on abortion may not align with Republican lawmakers in the state. Over 50% of Kansans expressed opposition to recent anti-abortion laws passed by the legislature, with around 55% believing lawmakers should impose no restrictions on abortion circumstances. This goes against the trend seen in the Kansas Legislature, with abortion being a key issue for Democrats in the campaign, particularly among female voters.
Throughout the campaign, Vice President Harris has positioned herself as a strong advocate for reproductive rights, leading the Democratic Party’s efforts on the issue. In contrast, former President Trump has faced criticism for his support for state-level abortion rights and his role in the repeal of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court in 2022. He has not clarified whether he would veto a national abortion ban, and the issue of abortion has featured prominently in some candidates’ campaigns at the state and national level in Kansas. This shows a divergence between Kansas voters’ views on abortion and the actions taken by Republican lawmakers in the state.
The poll results reflect a potential shift in Kansas’ political landscape, as Vice President Harris narrows the gap with former President Trump in a state that traditionally supports Republican candidates. The positive outlook on the economy may be contributing to this shift, with more Kansans viewing the Kansas economy positively in recent years. Still, concerns about inflation and dissatisfaction with President Biden’s performance are prevalent among respondents, indicating a complex political environment in Kansas. The discrepancy between Kansas voters’ views on abortion and recent state laws further highlights the political dynamics at play in the state and the campaign strategies of both the Democratic and Republican candidates.
