The National Republican Senatorial Committee, now led by Montana Senator Steve Daines, is optimistic about the upcoming November elections, believing that Republicans have a chance to pick up enough seats to secure a 53 seat majority in the Senate. This would serve as a necessary firewall to uphold GOP priorities, even if Democrats win the White House. This optimism is in contrast to a more pessimistic memo from Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund, which warned of challenges facing both the Senate slate and Donald Trump in key states. Despite this, the NRSC remains hopeful about their prospects.
One of the key races being closely watched is in Ohio, where the internal polls and analysis are in stark contrast. While the SLF polling showed Republican challenger Bernie Moreno trailing Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown by 6 points, the NRSC polling revealed Moreno actually leading Brown by 2 points. This optimism extends to the top of the ticket, with the NRSC seeing Trump with a significant 11 point lead over Kamala Harris in Ohio, compared to the 4 point edge in the SLF assessment.
Wisconsin is also on the NRSC’s list of potential pickups, with Eric Hovde currently leading incumbent Tammy Baldwin in head-to-head matchups. The NRSC memo highlights Hovde’s improved favorability and recent gains in the polls. In Michigan, the NRSC sees a dead heat between Mike Rogers and Democratic incumbent Elissa Slotkin, despite the SLF pointing to an 8 point lead for Slotkin. The NRSC remains hopeful that Rogers can bridge this gap and secure a victory in the state.
Both groups agree on the potential for Montana to flip, with Tim Sheehy leading incumbent Jon Tester by 8 points according to NRSC polling. The SLF sees a narrower 4 point lead for Sheehy, but both agree that Tester is struggling in the state. Larry Hogan’s bid for Senate in Maryland is seen as a longshot by both groups, with public polls showing a significant lead for incumbent Angela Alsobrooks. However, the NRSC believes that Hogan’s historical ability to close strong could make this a margin of error election.
Despite the differing analyses and predictions, the NRSC remains optimistic about their chances in November. With a number of close races and potential pickups on the table, the committee is hopeful that a red wave may be on the horizon in the Senate. These projections are based on internal polling data, which has shown promising results for Republican candidates in key states. As the election approaches, the race for Senate control is sure to intensify, with both parties fighting hard to secure majority control.
