Human activity is having a profound impact on the Earth’s water cycle, with consequences that are difficult to fully comprehend. Land use changes and weather modification activities like cloud seeding are altering where clouds form, how precipitation is distributed, and how nations plan for water use in the face of climate change. Colorado State University Assistant Professor Patrick Keys recognized a potential gap in understanding the lasting implications of these changes and enlisted water scientists from around the globe to write scenarios about the possible futures humanity is facing. The goal was to explore how entities may interact with the atmospheric water cycle in the future, including how countries or private actors may protect their resources or leverage advantages to access water.
To better understand the potential future relationships of water management, Keys used computational text analysis to identify recurring themes in journal abstracts about the current state of atmospheric water cycle research. He then sorted this data against economic goods principles to describe the ways humans and institutions may interact with the atmospheric water cycle in the future. Experts were then asked to imagine a world decades in the future where activities like cloud seeding were common, leading to an exercise in science fiction storytelling to envision the possible outcomes. Keys hosted workshops with interdisciplinary water experts to develop 10 story-based scenarios that were included in the paper, accompanied by imagery created by artist Fabio Comin.
Keys emphasizes the importance of considering potential cultural and perceptual factors that may play a significant role in shaping future outcomes related to atmospheric water resources. By engaging experts from various disciplines in creative exercises, he hopes to spark innovative thinking and generate scenarios that raise questions about policy, regulation, and enforcement in water management. This approach aims to highlight aspects that may be overlooked and facilitate more informed decision-making in addressing water-related challenges.
The use of storytelling as a tool for exploring the complexities of future water management activities provides a pathway to build a shared understanding of potential economic and policy issues on the horizon. By combining science fiction narratives with traditional research methods, Keys and his collaborators aim to offer a broader perspective on the implications of human activities on the atmospheric water cycle. This approach not only allows for a deeper exploration of how people may react to these changes but also provides a platform for individuals from diverse backgrounds to engage with and consider these issues.
Overall, the research conducted by Keys and his team underscores the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing the complex challenges posed by human-induced changes to the Earth’s water cycle. By incorporating creative storytelling and visual imagery into the exploration of future water management scenarios, the study serves as a catalyst for meaningful conversations and actions at a global level. Keys’ ongoing projects aim to continue igniting discussions around the water cycle, raising awareness of key policy and regulatory issues, and fostering a greater understanding of the intricate ways in which human activities shape the planet’s water resources.
