Robert F. Kennedy Jr., son of the former attorney general and senator, has entered the 2024 presidential race as a third-party candidate. With about 10 percent of likely voters supporting him, Kennedy has the potential to influence the outcome of the election. Kennedy, who has never run for office before, is known for his environmental advocacy work, but also for spreading false conspiracy theories in recent years.
Kennedy’s campaign platform is a mix of liberal and conservative views, with a focus on populist issues such as wealth inequality, labor unions, and corporate regulation. He criticizes the current political system as a “corporate kleptocracy” and calls for higher minimum wage, free daycare, and tax increases on the rich. His foreign policy views lean towards isolationism, advocating for diplomacy over military intervention in foreign conflicts.
Support for Kennedy is strongest among young voters, those without college degrees, and lower-income individuals. His supporters are more likely to be Latino and are often disillusioned with the current political system, seeking change that they have not seen realized through major party candidates. While Kennedy’s support is currently impacting President Biden more than Donald Trump, historial trends suggest that third-party support usually declines as the election nears.
Despite the likelihood of a decline in support, Kennedy’s candidacy could still have an impact on the election outcome. Third-party candidates like George Wallace, Ross Perot, and Ralph Nader have influenced modern presidential elections in the past. In 2000, Nader’s candidacy likely cost Al Gore the election, and in 2016, third-party support was larger than Trump’s margin over Hillary Clinton in six swing states. Kennedy’s campaign may not lead to victory, but it could shape the political landscape and influence the major party candidates’ platforms.
As the election campaign progresses, it is expected that Kennedy’s level of support will decrease, following the historical patterns of third-party candidates losing steam as the election draws nearer. Despite this, even a small percentage of support for a third-party candidate can have significant consequences in a close election. Kennedy’s campaign, with its mix of populist and controversial views, has the potential to impact the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race.
