Summarize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs On March 7, President Donald Trump announced Saudi Arabia’s commitment to invest $1 trillion into the U.S. economy. In Trump’s words: “I made a deal with Saudi Arabia…. I said I’ll go if you pay $1 trillion to American companies, meaning the purchase over a four-year period of $1 trillion, and they’ve agreed to do that.”Though Saudi authorities have yet to confirm the pledge or provide a more detailed investment plan, the Kingdom’s proposed $1 trillion infusion into the United States, if true, represents a bold and precarious wager. While the scale of the investment suggests ambitions for significant economic returns and influence, Saudi Arabia faces uncertainty about whether it can secure the level of political leverage it desires from an administration known for its unpredictability.To finance this colossal commitment, Saudi Arabia would require its sovereign wealth fund—the Public Investment Fund (PIF)—to dig deeper into its coffers and aggressively tap international debt markets. Critically, Saudi Arabia’s ambitious pledge represents approximately 108 percent of the PIF’s current assets under management, which are estimated at $925 billion.Riyadh’s unconfirmed commitment aligns with its decades-old strategy of cementing military ties with Washington, yet Trump’s rhetoric masks a starkly asymmetrical reality. For Saudi Arabia, the investments may yield access to advanced weaponry and potentially attractive returns, but Trump made no mention of a nuclear partnership or the security guarantees that Riyadh has long been seeking. For Trump, however, the deal offers nothing but upside: a legacy-defining headline and immediate political capital from job creation—a repeat of his 2018 arms-sales spectacle with Saudi Arabia, where he inflated a $110 billion defense package (mostly unconsummated) into a narrative of “500,000 jobs.” The figure was later debunked as a wild exaggeration.The move is surprising in some respects. Saudi Arabia’s need for formal U.S. security guarantees has waned, especially after September 2019, when Iranian-aligned Houthi drones struck the Kingdom’s oil facilities. The U.S. response—symbolic sanctions but no military retaliation—pushed Riyadh to accelerate its embrace of a multipolar world. By joining the BRICS bloc in 2024, showing openness to yuan-denominated oil trade with Beijing, and hosting Ukrainian-Russian peace talks, the Kingdom has sought to diversify its dependencies and remodel itself as a peacemaker.Having reconciled with Iran in 2023 through Chinese-mediated diplomacy and extricated itself from a devastating war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has bolstered its national security and reduced its dependence on external powers for security guarantees. However, the announcement of a trillion-dollar investment plan—or even the Saudi-confirmed $600 billion—signals a shift from its policy of maintaining balanced relationships towards one of increasing dependency on the United States, a power whose commitment to Riyadh has wavered since the 2010s.This erosion of ties began with America’s shale revolution, which significantly reduced U.S. reliance on Gulf oil and diminished its incentive to guarantee regional stability. The trend accelerated with President Biden’s 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan and reluctance to confront Iran, which pushed Saudi Arabia to diversify alliances and recalibrate its security strategy.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) meets with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on February 17, 2025.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) meets with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on February 17, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein / POOL / AFP/Getty Images
The spending spree also creates tension with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) Vision 2030, an ambitious plan to pivot Saudi Arabia away from oil dependence. With a 2025 budget deficit of $27 billion, Riyadh will need to finance its commitments through borrowing and leveraging. Last year, the PIF secured a $15 billion credit facility to expand its portfolio, but a trillion-dollar pledge will certainly strain its resources further.Meanwhile, domestic priorities hang in the balance. One of Vision 2030’s primary pillars is to employ more Saudis, and while progress has been made, unemployment hovers at around 7 percent, above the 5 percent target set by Vision 2030. U.S. investments, by contrast, prioritize American jobs: infrastructure contracts for U.S. firms, defense deals sustaining Boeing and Lockheed Martin plants. Even the PIF’s flashy ventures in U.S. tech startups, AI firms, and green energy projects generate minimal Saudi employment. Domestically, Megaprojects like NEOM—recently scaled back due to budgetary concerns—rely overwhelmingly on foreign contractors, leaving less room for local industry and talent.A second Trump term amplifies these risks. His first presidency set a trend: aggressive sales tactics that lead to extraction of concessions. In March 2018, Trump famously showcased a poster of U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia while sitting next to Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince. As Trump emphasized during this presentation, “Saudi Arabia is buying a lot of this equipment, and a lot of people are at work making this equipment.”Trump is likely to leverage Saudi Arabia’s good will and demonstrated intent to strengthen ties to demand further concessions down the line, such as dictating oil production quotas, isolating Iran, or sidelining Palestinian interests—actions he has already pursued since assuming office.
Moreover, pro-Israel hawks like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who recently fast-tracked $4 billion in military aid to Israel, threaten to further undermine Riyadh’s strategic goal of fostering stability in the Middle East. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, silence on West Bank annexation, and proposals to displace Gazans to make way for a “Riviera” underscore his alignment with Israeli dominance in the region.Saudi Arabia’s proposed investment represents a high-stakes bet amid unfavorable circumstances. Oil prices languishing below $70—far from the $90 needed to balance its 2025 budget—complicate the Kingdom’s financial planning.This fiscal tightrope requires Riyadh to weigh domestic reforms, like job creation and megaprojects, against its international commitments. A renewed U.S. partnership, particularly under a Trump administration focused on transactional deals, adds uncertainty to the equation.The move also draws Saudi Arabia closer to Washington’s orbit—a tension for a kingdom actively diversifying alliances through BRICS, mediation diplomacy, and non-dollar oil trade.Success hinges on Riyadh’s ability to choreograph its multipolar vision and its domestic ambitions while bankrolling Trump’s “America First” economy.Elfadil Ibrahim is a writer and analyst focused on Sudanese and Middle Eastern politics. His work has been featured in Al Jazeera, Responsible Statecraft, the New Arab, the Guardian, World Politics Review and other outlets. The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.
