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The extension of EU sanctions shouldn’t be automatic, the Hungarian government has said, in remarks that threaten to unravel the bloc’s collective reaction to Russia’s war on Ukraine
Hungary has ratcheted up its criticism of EU sanctions on Russia as a crucial deadline to renew the restrictions looms closer, stoking fears the punitive regime painstakingly built across 15 different packages could soon come undone.The bloc’s sectoral sanctions imposed on Moscow for invading Ukraine include sweeping bans on trade in energy, technology, finance, luxury goods, transport and broadcasting, and a freeze of €210 billion assets held by the Russian central bank within the bloc.But they need to be prolonged every six months, and the next deadline is 31 January. The EU needs unanimous support from its members to continue sanctions, but Hungary has seized the moment to, once again, question whether the regime is effective and pertinent, and to argue the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president creates a new political context.”Sanctions against Russia have done more harm to Europe than to Russia .. sanctions that do more harm to those who impose them than to those who are sanctioned do not make much sense,” Gergely Gulyás, a member of Hungary’s governing cabinet, told reporters on Thursday.”That is why we have always argued for an end to the sanctions policy as soon as possible.”Gulyás said Trump’s stated intention to seek direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin merited a broader reflection on the bloc’s long-term policy, and the method by which sanctions are renewed every six months. “For the time being, we need to discuss the issue with our European allies, with the members of the European Union, in view of the new situation,” Gulyás said.”So far, everyone has seen the extension of sanctions as automatic, but we do not think it is automatic now.”His comments came two days after Prime Minister Viktor Orbán published a social media post in which he decried the “sanctions engineered by the Brussels bureaucrats.””The time for change has come!” Orbán wrote.Neither Orbán nor Gulyás said how the government will vote when the time comes to renew the restrictions. Meetings of EU ambassadors on Friday and of foreign affairs ministers on Monday are expected to offer a clearer picture of Budapest’s stance.High stakesA key influencing factor could be recent hawkish remarks from Trump, who threatened “high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia” if Putin refuses to sit down and make a deal with Ukraine.”We can do it the easy way, or the hard way,” Trump said on Wednesday.A Hungarian veto would imply the collapse of the most hard-hitting sanctions the EU has imposed on the Kremlin in reaction to the invasion of Ukraine. Orbán has previously used his veto power to extract concessions, but never to effect such radical change.Last year, the EU and the US set up an extraordinary multi-billion loan for Kyiv, backed with the proceeds of the frozen central bank assets. Lifting sanctions could mean the loan falls apart, leaving western allies financially liable.Asked about this scenario, the European Commission declined to pre-empt the debate among foreign affairs ministers and stressed the sanctions were designed to ensure Russia “is paying for all the crimes.””The narrative that Russia is strong is not holding. We have seen this just now in Syria,” a spokesperson said, referring to the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Putin’s.Besides Hungary, Brussels is keeping a close eye on Slovakia, whose prime minister, Robert Fico, has been butting heads with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over Ukraine’s decision to stop the transit of Russian gas.Earlier this month, Fico threatened to use his veto power in retaliation for the move, without specifying how. This week, he hosted Orbán for a bilateral meeting in Bratislava. The two leaders doubled down on their refusal to accept Ukraine as a NATO member.Both Orbán and Fico maintain open communications with the Kremlin, and have each flown to Moscow to meet face-to-face with Putin, prompting outrage.László Arató contributed reporting.
