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The stakes are high as Canada is thrust into a general election campaign, not just for the country but for the leaders of all three major national parties.
Canada’s 45th federal election, which formally kicked off Sunday afternoon, will see a new prime minister elected and a new cabinet come to power – whatever the outcome.Liberal Party Leader Mark Carney, sworn in as prime minister just last week after being elected party leader to replace Justin Trudeau, will seek to return the Liberals to power for a fourth time in 10 years. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will seek to capitalize on years of anger at the Liberal brand and install his party in power for the first time since Stephen Harper was defeated in 2015.The New Democrats, meanwhile, are fighting for oxygen in the contest which could be Leader Jagmeet Singh’s last kick at the can. The Bloc Québecois are facing similar headwinds, with Carney’s Liberals regaining ground in the province. The contest will take place against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s unprecedented economic attacks against Canada, and in a time of near-constant uncertainty on the world stage, with conflict raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, an increasingly muscular China and the looming threat of climate change.No pressure.
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It’s also taking place in the context of a dramatic if not unprecedented swing in national polling. The Conservatives have enjoyed a comfortable lead over the Liberals in voter preference since Poilievre took over the party in 2022, leading by double-digit percentage points for months at a time.That appears to have changed after Justin Trudeau resigned as prime minister in January. Since then, the Liberals have steadily grown in popularity among voters, and according to most national public polls are now statistically tied or enjoying a slight lead over the Conservatives.
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The latest Ipsos polling, published Tuesday, found that if a federal election were held now the Liberals would have a six percentage point advantage over the Conservatives with 42 per cent of decided voter support – compared to 36 per cent for Poilievre’s Conservatives. That’s a seven percentage-point swing in just three weeks.The NDP are down to just 10 per cent support of decided voters. A weak showing by the New Democrats typically benefits the Liberals, with “progressive” voters moving to the red team to block a Conservative victory. More concerning for Poilievre and the Conservatives are respondents’ views on who would be the best prime minister, particularly when the government is facing existential economic threats from the Trump administration.Ipsos found that 42 per cent of respondents view Carney – as yet untested by the rigors of campaigning – as the best choice for prime minister, leading Poilievre by 10 percentage points.Canadians elect MPs, not prime ministers, but party leaders typically have a considerable role in persuading voters.(The Ipsos poll was conducted between March 14 and March 17 on behalf of Global News, had a sample size of 1,000 voting-aged Canadians and is considered accurate within 3.8 percentage points.)But even a tie doesn’t necessarily mean a toss-up. Because Conservative support has traditionally been concentrated in Western Canada, even if the polls are neck-and-neck it means the Liberals have the advantage since their vote is more efficient and concentrated in seat-rich provinces like Ontario and Québec.While the Tories’ strong support in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan can juice their national polling numbers, it doesn’t translate into the seats they need to form government. The Conservatives won the popular vote in both 2019 and 2021, but the Liberals were still able to form minority governments.
If the Conservatives pull off a victory, Poilievre would be seen as a saviour within the party – leading them into government as a “real” Conservative after the centrist shift from former leader Erin O’Toole, and after Andrew Scheer’s disappointing loss in 2019. If they lose, Poilievre would be the third-straight Conservative leader to sit in opposition after failing to unseat an unpopular Liberal administration. Neither of his predecessors’ leadership survived a general election loss.Poilievre’s hold on the Conservatives is much stronger than either O’Toole’s or Scheer’s, but neither O’Toole nor Scheer had the same amount of time or internal party support to prepare for their chance. A Conservative loss, after leading for so long in national polls, could lead to yet another round of soul searching.Carney, meanwhile, has an opportunity to either resurrect the Liberal Party from the brink of collapse – again – or become the shortest-serving prime minister in modern Canadian history. The former central banker has never run in an election campaign, even to win a seat in the House of Commons, and is going up against more experienced and seasoned campaigners in both Poilievre and Singh.This is the third general election Singh will lead the New Democrats into, and the previous two did little to improve the party’s fortunes in the House of Commons. In 2015, under Thomas Mulcair, the party won 44 seats with 19.7 per cent of the popular vote. In 2019, Singh oversaw a campaign that reduced the party to 24 seats with 16 per cent of the vote, and in 2021 the party returned 25 MPs with 17.8 per cent of the vote.With the exception of Mulcair, New Democrats don’t have much of a tradition of turfing party leaders after elections, but three losses in general elections is more chances than most party leaders get, whatever the party. Campaigns matter, as the received wisdom in Ottawa always reminds us. Nothing on Day Two of a campaign is necessarily indicative of where Canadians will be for election day on April 28.One thing is for certain in this campaign, however, is that change is coming to Ottawa, one way or another.
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
