The 2024 federal budget did not improve the Liberal party’s standing in the polls, as indicated by new Ipsos polling data. The budget included significant new spending to address issues of generational fairness and the housing supply gap in Canada. However, most Canadians surveyed had lackluster or negative reactions to the budget, with only 17% giving it a positive rating. The majority of respondents in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba gave it a “thumbs down.” Additionally, only 10% of respondents felt the budget would personally benefit them, while 37% believed it would harm them. These findings suggest that the budget did not resonate with the general public and failed to attract support for the Liberal party.
When asked about their voting intentions in an upcoming federal election, 43% of respondents indicated they would vote Conservative, compared to 24% who would vote Liberal and 19% who would lean NDP. This represents a one-point increase in support for the Conservative party since the previous month, signalling that the budget did not help the Liberals gain ground. Only 8% of respondents said the budget made them more likely to vote Liberal, while 34% said it made them less likely. While sentiment towards the Liberals was slightly higher among younger voters, overall opinions remained overwhelmingly negative across all age groups.
Prior to the release of the 2024 budget, the Liberals were under pressure to address affordability issues in Canada, particularly in the housing market. The budget included measures to remove junk fees, support first-time homebuyers, and change capital gains taxation to target the wealthiest Canadians. However, there is no quick fix for the affordability crisis, according to experts, suggesting that the budget may not have done enough to address the concerns of Canadians. Trudeau and other Liberal officials have been promoting the budget across the country, but initial reactions indicate that these efforts may not be gaining traction with the public.
According to Bricker, there has been little change in public opinion on federal politics over the past year, and the Liberals are facing a significant challenge in the upcoming election. The Conservatives are leading in every region except Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois holds the lead. The Liberals are facing widespread public disapproval, with 32% of voters stating they would never consider voting for the party. This lack of support across demographics, age groups, and regions suggests that the Liberals may struggle to make significant gains in the next election. Bricker compares the situation to the Progressive Conservative party’s historic defeat in 1993, indicating that the hill the Liberals have to climb is significant and challenging.
Looking ahead to the next federal election in October 2025, there is a possibility of the Liberals losing to a large majority from the Conservative party if current trends continue. Bricker suggests that the Liberals need to make significant changes and demonstrate progress to win back public support. However, the early reactions to the 2024 budget and ongoing polling data indicate that the Liberals may be facing an uphill battle to retain power. Despite efforts to promote the budget and engage with Canadians, it appears that the Liberal party is struggling to connect with voters and may need to make significant strategic changes to improve their chances in the upcoming election.
