President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia recently made a threat to arm North Korea if the United States and its allies continue to supply Ukraine with sophisticated weapons that have been used to strike Russian territory. Putin made this threat while in Vietnam, before returning to Russia. The threat was seen as a response to decisions by the US and its allies to allow Ukraine to make limited strikes on Russian territory, while prohibiting longer-range attacks deeper in the country. Putin suggested that if these weapons could go to Ukraine, then they could go elsewhere, raising concerns about the potential proliferation of advanced arms to rogue actors hostile to the US and its allies.
During his visit to Pyongyang, Putin did not specify what weapons he would provide to North Korea, but it is known that Kim Jong-un is seeking to advance his nuclear warheads, missiles, submarines, and satellites, areas where Russia possesses sophisticated technology. The visit underscored how the conflict in Ukraine has become the guiding principle of Putin’s foreign policy, overshadowing other priorities the Kremlin has pursued in the past. Both Russia and North Korea have denied any exchange of arms, despite reports that North Korea has supplied Russia with munitions for use in the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia had previously participated in UN efforts to constrain North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile program, approving resolutions to limit the regime’s access to arms, technology, and resources. However, Putin now advocates for the end of these sanctions, motivated by raising the cost to the US of supporting Ukraine and Russia’s need for North Korea’s conventional ammunition and weaponry. Putin’s revival of the mutual defense pact with North Korea and the threat to arm Kim’s regime has raised concerns in South Korea and Japan, home to US military bases. South Korea has considered providing lethal assistance to Ukraine in response, but Putin warned against such actions.
During his visit to Pyongyang, Putin compared the sanctions on North Korea to the siege of Leningrad during World War II, drawing parallels to the struggles faced by North Korean families who are unable to earn money to feed their children. He questioned the humanitarian aspect of these sanctions and called for their reevaluation. Putin’s recent demands to end the conflict in Ukraine include a ceasefire and talks if Kyiv withdraws troops from regions claimed by Russia and drops its aspirations to join NATO. However, these demands were rejected by Ukraine and its allies as a demand for capitulation rather than a sincere negotiation offer.
In response to new devices developed by the West that lower the threshold for nuclear use, Putin mentioned considering changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Russia has the world’s largest arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons, which can be used in more limited battlefield scenarios. Putin has warned against pursuit of Moscow’s strategic defeat through a loss in the conflict in Ukraine, suggesting catastrophic consequences for the Russian state if such a scenario were to unfold. Despite attempts to pressure the West to take his negotiation offers seriously, Putin’s stance on arming North Korea as a response to Western support for Ukraine raises concerns about further escalation in the conflict.
