President Vladimir Putin’s recent reshuffle in top-level positions within the Russian military may indicate concerns within the Kremlin about the progress of the full-scale war on Ukraine. The decision to replace Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with economist Alexei Belousov suggests that Putin is worried about corruption within the military, conflicts with the defense industrial base, and the overall effectiveness of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Shoigu, who has been moved to head Russia’s national security council, faced criticism for the military’s failures in Ukraine despite initial reports of success in modernizing the military after the quick seizure of Crimea in 2014.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed systemic corruption and incompetence within the military that Shoigu had not addressed. The arrest of his deputy on corruption charges signaled the end of the Shoigu era. Putin’s reshuffle appears to focus on establishing full economic conditions for a protracted war, with Belousov’s appointment indicating a move towards a more civilian-led Defense Ministry. Belousov, known for his economic expertise and technocratic approach, is expected to bring a professional and straightforward perspective to the role. Unlike Shoigu, Belousov does not have his own power base and is loyal exclusively to Putin, allowing Russian generals to lead the war effort without interference from above.
Belousov’s appointment is seen as a positive move by some analysts, who believe he will improve oversight within the Defense Ministry and enhance cooperation with the defense industrial base. He is also expected to launch an anti-corruption drive and take a strong stance against Western influences, advocating for a greater role for the state in the Russian economy. However, some analysts, such as economics professor Konstantin Sonin, suggest that the reshuffle may indicate that the war is not going according to Putin’s plan, but he continues to rotate the same group of loyalists in key positions.
Overall, Putin’s reshuffle in the Defense Ministry reflects concerns within the Kremlin about the progress of the war on Ukraine and the need to address issues such as corruption and inefficiency within the military establishment. Belousov’s appointment as Defense Minister signals a shift towards a more civilian-led approach and a focus on setting economic conditions for a prolonged conflict. While some view the appointment as a positive step towards addressing internal issues and improving oversight, others suggest that it may indicate that the war is not going as planned for Putin. Ultimately, the reshuffle highlights the challenges facing Russia in its ongoing military campaign in Ukraine and the need for strategic leadership to navigate these complexities.
