When Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts Russian President Vladimir Putin in China, it will mark over two years since the two autocratic leaders declared a “no limits” partnership to counter American bullying. However, growing challenges from the West have tested the limits of this partnership. Xi is under increasing pressure to curtail Chinese support for Russia and its war in Ukraine, as a tighter embrace of Putin could further alienate key trading partners in Europe. This balancing act is challenging as China seeks to improve its image in the West and revitalize its economy.
Putin is likely testing Xi’s appetite for risk in trying to deter Western nations from actively supporting Ukraine. While Xi was meeting President Emmanuel Macron in France, Putin ordered drills for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, signaling a potential willingness to use battlefield nuclear weapons in the war. Putin is expected to press Xi for more support to sustain Russia’s isolated economy and its war machine in Ukraine during their meeting in China.
Xi and Putin have a strong show of unity and strength, with Xi being exalted in pro-Russian states like Serbia and Hungary, and both leaders portraying themselves as leaders of an alternative global system aimed at undermining American dominance. However, this solidarity with Russia makes China a target for Western pressure. The United States accuses China of indirectly aiding Russia’s war efforts through various means, leading to sanctions on Chinese companies and threats to blacklist financial institutions doing business with Russia.
Xi’s strategy of aligning with Russia while maintaining ties with the West, termed as a “strategic straddle,” seems to be working. China’s relationship with the U.S. has somewhat stabilized, and major European leaders continue to engage with Xi. This approach has gained support within China and has not incurred significant costs despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Xi also sees Russia as a necessary counterweight in China’s rivalry with the U.S. over various key issues.
Putin’s growing dependence on China poses risks as Russia has become increasingly reliant on China since the invasion of Ukraine, displacing the European Union as Russia’s largest trading partner. Despite pursuing his own interests, such as growing ties with North Korea, Putin still needs China for energy purchases, military supplies, and foreign transactions. In fact, the majority of high-priority imports for Russian weapons production come from China, highlighting Russia’s reliance on its neighbor for survival.
Overall, the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in China will be crucial in navigating the complex dynamics of their partnership amid increasing Western pressure and Putin’s growing dependence on China. As the two leaders strengthen their relationship and showcase unity against the West, the challenges and risks of this alliance become more evident. And as China seeks to balance its ties with Russia and the West for economic and strategic reasons, the outcomes of their meeting will have implications on the global geopolitical landscape.
