As the United States presidential election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris is facing economic challenges that could impact her momentum with voters. A port strike, a hurricane, and escalating violence in the Middle East are threatening the strong US economy and giving Republicans ammunition to criticize the current administration. Despite years of job growth and consumer spending, Harris is being portrayed as part of a failed administration that has left American consumers struggling with high prices. Former President Donald Trump has wasted no time in blaming the current chaos on his rival, hoping voters forget the chaos of his own presidency.
The recent fall in gas prices in the US should have been a positive for Harris, as voters often associate prices at the pump with the party in power. However, global oil prices spiked due to escalating violence in the Middle East, potentially leading to higher prices for American drivers. Additionally, an East Coast port strike is disrupting the flow of goods and could cost the economy billions of dollars if it continues. Business leaders have urged the Biden administration to intervene to prevent further disruptions to the supply chain.
Tragedies in the Southeast, including Hurricane Helene, have resulted in significant loss of life and destruction, with roads closed and power out in several states. The economic impact of the hurricane is expected to be as high as $34 billion, leading to temporary job losses and furloughs as businesses deal with the aftermath. This, combined with strikes at Boeing and ports, could result in a negative October jobs report, ending a four-year streak of impressive job growth that aided the economic recovery from the pandemic recession. The timing of the job report, just four days before Election Day, is particularly challenging for the Harris campaign.
The potential negative job report in October would be the first of its kind since December 2020, the last full month of the Trump administration. While any job losses would likely be temporary, the impact on the economy and Harris’ messaging on labor could be significant. The combination of multiple economic shocks could further fuel criticism of the current administration and impact voter sentiment towards Harris. The optics of these events in the weeks leading up to the election are not favorable for the party in power, making it a challenging time for the Harris campaign to maintain momentum with voters focused on the economy.
