As the excitement builds for the 150th Kentucky Derby, horse racing enthusiasts are eagerly analyzing the field of 20 entrants, all still-developing 3-year-olds with limited experience. The recent change in the Derby qualifying system in 2013 has resulted in a field heavy on horses that have proven success under Derby-like conditions. Favorites have performed well in recent years, winning 54.5% of the time since 2013. The favorite for this year’s race, Fierceness, has a noteworthy track record of either dominating victories or disappointing finishes, making him a potential boom or bust contender.
Pace is a crucial factor in the Derby, with a faster early pace typically benefiting closers who conserve energy. Both Fierceness and Sierra Leone, the other top contender, have contrasting running styles, with Fierceness preferring to run near the front and Sierra Leone a deep closer. The recent history of the Derby shows the impact of pace on race outcomes, with fast early fractions favoring closers. Fierceness, starting from an outside post, will need to navigate the pace of the race to remain competitive.
Speed ratings, such as the Beyer Speed Figures, offer a method for comparing horses based on their past performances. Fierceness holds a significant advantage in Beyer ratings over the rest of the field, with a high of 110. Horses with top Beyer ratings have a strong track record of performing well in the Derby, with six winners since 2000 entering the race with one of the top three highest Beyers. Fierceness’ dominant speed ratings make him the favorite, but history shows that even high Beyer-rated horses can be defeated.
Analyzing the final fractions of each horse in their pre-Derby prep races can provide insights into their fitness and endurance. Horses that finish strongly in their final prep race tend to perform well in the Derby. Eight horses in this year’s field fail to meet the final fraction criteria, including Sierra Leone, despite his impressive win in the Blue Grass Stakes. The majority of Derby winners in recent years have excelled in their final fractions, hinting at their potential for success in the race.
Japanese-bred horses have been making waves in international racing, and this year’s field includes two descendants of Sunday Silence, Forever Young, and T O Password. Japanese-bred horses have not traditionally performed well in the Derby, but recent successes in other major races suggest a breakthrough could be on the horizon. The unique challenges faced by the Japanese entrants, including adjusting to North American racing and limited experience, add an element of intrigue to their potential performance in the race.
Ultimately, the author’s pick for the Kentucky Derby is a long shot with a promising running style, strong final fractions, and a competitive Beyer speed rating. Avoiding the favorites, the chosen contender from the Arkansas Derby has shown improvement in recent races and has the qualities necessary for success in the prestigious race. While favorites like Fierceness and Sierra Leone are strong contenders, the allure of finding a dark horse with the right mix of skills and potential for growth makes this year’s Derby even more exciting to watch.
