In the 2024 elections, Republicans have the potential to flip a handful of House seats currently held by Democrats, giving them a chance to build on their slim majority in the chamber. All 435 seats in the House are up for grabs, and the GOP is focused on picking up seats in districts that lean towards right-wing candidates. This battle will likely take place in districts that were won, or narrowly lost, by Republicans in recent elections. Republicans currently hold a 218-to-213 majority in the House, but that number is expected to decrease further due to resignations and departures by several GOP lawmakers.
The Cook Political Report ranks 11 Democrat-held seats as “Toss Up” races in the upcoming election cycle, with several of these races including districts that were won or nearly won by former President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Some of the most closely watched House seats include Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District, and Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, where Democrats are currently in office but facing tough challenges from Republican candidates.
In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat, is facing challenges from two Republicans in the upcoming election. In Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur is being challenged by Derek Merrin, a Republican endorsed by Trump. In Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright is facing a challenge from Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. Washington’s 3rd Congressional District is represented by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who is being challenged by Republican candidates including U.S. Army veteran Joe Kent.
In Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District, Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola is facing Republican challengers Nick Begich and Nancy Dahlstrom in a ranked-choice voting election. Michigan’s 7th Congressional District is an open seat currently held by Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who is running for the Senate, with Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. vying for the seat. Republicans are also eyeing Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat who is running for governor.
Despite the potential for Republicans to flip Democrat-held seats in the House in the 2024 elections, several GOP-held seats are also considered competitive by the Cook Political Report, with 11 GOP-held seats ranked as “Toss Up” races. This means that the House majority could potentially shift in either direction, with some Republicans in districts won by President Biden in 2020 facing challenges in maintaining their seats. The outcome of these races will play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in the House after the 2024 elections.
