Vice President Kamala Harris has received positive news regarding her chances in North Carolina for the 2024 presidential election. The Cook Political Report recently shifted North Carolina from “leans Republican” to a “toss-up” state in its forecast. This change was due to Harris improving on Biden’s vote share by seven points rather than Trump losing ground in the state. Previous Democratic victories in North Carolina have been rare, with the last one occurring when Barack Obama won the state in 2008.
According to an average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight, the race in North Carolina is currently a dead heat, with Trump holding a small lead over Harris by 0.2 points. Trump initially held a commanding lead of 6.9 percent before dropping out of the race to endorse Harris. In response to the increased competitiveness in North Carolina, Trump has been spending more time in the state, holding multiple rallies. Despite only visiting North Carolina once, Harris is expected to campaign more in the state in the coming months.
Political science professors Steven Greene and Kevin Wagner have provided insight into the significance of North Carolina in the presidential election. While Harris could potentially win the presidency without winning in North Carolina, it would be unlikely for Trump to do the same. Despite the state historically leaning Republican, it is expected to be a competitive race in November. North Carolina’s status as a competitive state has also been acknowledged by other election forecasters, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which recently shifted the state to a “toss-up” category.
In addition to North Carolina, other states such as Minnesota and New Hampshire have also seen shifts in their forecasted outcomes. The Cook Political Report moved these states from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat” for the presidential election. This change is attributed to Harris’s ability to energize the Democratic coalition, making these states less competitive for the Trump campaign. Overall, these updates indicate a changing landscape in the 2024 election, with Harris potentially gaining ground in key battleground states.
