A new poll from The Wall Street Journal has found Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck with Donald Trump in the upcoming November election, following President Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic nomination. The poll indicates a significant increase in enthusiasm among Harris voters, with 81% reporting enthusiasm compared to only 37% for Biden in early July. Harris has cut into Trump’s lead, with a 2% lead in a two-person race and a 1% lead when independent and third-party candidates are included. Her campaign raised a record-breaking $100 million within 24 hours of her announcement, marking what is claimed to be the largest one-day raise in presidential history.
While the poll includes positive news for Harris, indicating a competitive race, Republican pollster David Lee pointed out that Trump is in a better position compared to a similar time in the 2020 election when he was trailing Biden by nine points. Trump is favored on key issues like the economy, immigration, foreign policy, and crime, while Harris leads on abortion. The potential for a tied national poll favors Trump in the Electoral College due to population distribution. The choice of Harris’s vice presidential candidate, which includes names like Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. Mark Kelly, may impact the numbers and shake up the race.
In Michigan, Harris and Trump are in a dead heat according to a Fox News poll, with Harris showing a three-point improvement from Biden’s numbers in April. The demographic breakdown in the poll shows gender and age differences, with men favoring Trump and women backing Harris. Additionally, Harris leads among younger voters, voters of color, and Whites with a degree, while Trump is preferred by whites without a college degree. The race has tightened in battleground states, giving hope to Democrats who had pushed for Biden to drop out due to collapsing numbers in those states. Polls in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania show varying leads for Harris and Trump, with Trump meeting or exceeding his 2020 vote share in a two-way race with Harris.
Overall, the battleground states are showing a close race between Harris and Trump, with differing preferences among voters depending on key issues like the economy, immigration, and abortion. Harris enjoys higher favorability ratings compared to Trump in most states, except Michigan where they remain tied. The race remains fluid as Harris continues to build momentum and solidify her position as the Democratic candidate. The election is shaping up to be competitive, with both candidates vying for support in key battleground states that will ultimately decide the outcome of the race.
