A recent poll conducted in Texas has revealed that the state may be more competitive in the 2024 election than previously anticipated. While former President Donald Trump was initially shown to be leading by a significant margin against President Joe Biden, the dynamics of the race have changed following Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise to the top of the Democratic ticket. The latest survey conducted by the University of Houston Hobby School and Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs found that Trump is now only ahead of Harris by about five points. This shift suggests that Texas, which has consistently voted for the Republican candidate in presidential elections since 1980, could be a tighter race than expected.
The August survey of 1,365 likely voters in Texas revealed that 49.5 percent plan to vote for Trump, while 44.6 percent are supporting Harris. Additionally, two percent expressed support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while smaller percentages backed Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver. The poll also showed that 2.7 percent of respondents were undecided. When compared to an earlier survey, it was found that Trump retained 97 percent of his June vote, while Harris retained 96 percent of Biden’s June vote, indicating a high level of consistency among voters. However, a significant portion of Kennedy supporters had shifted their allegiance to Harris, potentially impacting the final outcome of the election in Texas.
Despite Harris’ recent surge in polling numbers, the Trump campaign remains confident that this increase in support is temporary. Another poll conducted between July 31 and August 13 also showed Trump leading Harris by a larger margin in Texas. The race remains close, with Trump leading by 6.6 points in the polling average by Race to the White House. Experts have weighed in on the potential for a Democratic victory in Texas, with varying opinions on the likelihood of Harris flipping the state blue. While some believe that Harris will make the race more competitive than it would have been with Biden as the nominee, the prevailing sentiment is that a Trump victory in Texas is the most likely scenario.
Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, a professor of American politics at the University of North Texas, expressed skepticism about the possibility of Texas being in play for the Democrats. He believes that Harris may visit the state to raise money and generate exposure, but does not foresee a significant shift in the traditional Republican support in Texas. Similarly, Mark Jones, a Professor of Political Science at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, anticipates that while Harris may make the race closer, a Trump victory in the mid-to-high single digits is the most probable outcome. Despite the changing dynamics of the race and Harris’ growing support, it is still uncertain whether Texas will ultimately swing in favor of the Democrats in the upcoming election.
