A new poll conducted between October 27 and 30 among 600 registered voters in Pennsylvania shows that former President Donald Trump could be on track to break a 40-year record in the key swing state. Trump is currently leading Vice President Harris on the expanded ballot by 5 points and by 6 points in a head-to-head matchup. If Trump wins by this margin, it would be the biggest winning margin by a Republican in the state since Reagan won by 7 points in 1984. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is pivotal for securing victory on November 5, with the state having voted for the overall winner in 48 out of the last 59 elections.
Several recent polls show a tight race between Harris and Trump, with Trump having a slight edge of between one and three points. Polls conducted by Fox News, Monmouth University, and Quinnipiac University all show Trump ahead by a small margin among likely voters, whether in a head-to-head matchup or in an expanded ballot. Poll trackers also indicate that Trump has taken the lead in Pennsylvania over the past two weeks, with projections showing him ahead by less than a percentage point. Despite Trump’s marginal lead, Harris still has hope in the state due to recent controversial remarks by a comedian at a Trump rally that could impact the campaign in Pennsylvania, where Puerto Ricans make up 3.7 percent of the population.
Early voting data from Pennsylvania indicates that more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the state, with registered Democrats making up 57 percent of early voters compared to 32 percent for Republicans. However, it is unclear who these voters are voting for, as the data only reveals party registration and not candidate support. Polling data also shows that Trump’s base of white voters in Pennsylvania is shrinking, with the latest Fox News poll revealing that he is leading white voters by only 4 points, compared to a 15-point lead in 2020. White voters make up 75 percent of Pennsylvania’s population, making them a crucial component of Trump’s base, so losing support among this demographic could jeopardize his path to victory in the state and potentially in the overall election.
On the same day as Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden, Vice President Harris was in Allentown, Pennsylvania, where she released a video outlining her plan for Puerto Rico. Puerto Rican music icon Bad Bunny shared the video on his Instagram account, garnering more attention for Harris ahead of the election. Despite the race being close in Pennsylvania, with projections showing Trump slightly ahead, the contest remains uncertain as both campaigns continue to campaign in the swing state. The outcome in Pennsylvania could ultimately influence the overall outcome of the election, given its historical significance in presidential elections and pivotal status in choosing the eventual winner.
