A national poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research has indicated that Republicans are more enthusiastic about former President Trump returning to the White House than Democrats are about President Biden serving another term. Fifty-four percent of Republicans said they would be excited about a second Trump term, while only four in 10 Democrats expressed similar feelings about a Biden victory in a potential rematch between the two candidates. However, the poll also found that Trump evokes more anger and fear from Democrats than Biden does from Republicans, with seven in 10 Democrats using these emotions to describe how they would feel if Trump won.
With just over seven months to go until Election Day on Nov. 5, Trump appears to have an early advantage in public opinion polling, both nationally and in several key battleground states. However, Biden currently holds the upper hand in fundraising. The upcoming rematch between the two candidates will likely be characterized by stark contrasts in style, demeanor, and policy positions, with key issues such as the economy, health care, immigration, and foreign policy playing a significant role in motivating voters from both parties.
Biden, who at 81 years old faces questions about his mental and physical fitness, as well as challenges in energizing key parts of the Democratic base, also has to contend with primary ballot box protests over his support for Israel in its conflict with Hamas. Trump, on the other hand, is dealing with numerous legal issues, including multiple federal cases related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. Additionally, Trump will need to court the support of Republican voters who backed Nikki Haley in the GOP nomination race, highlighting his weakness with suburban and highly educated voters.
The upcoming presidential rematch between Biden and Trump will not be a two-candidate race, as Democratic-turned-Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is working to secure his name on state ballots across the country. Kennedy, a member of the famous Kennedy political dynasty, is known for his environmental activism and vaccine skepticism and is polling in double digits in many general election polls. Third-party candidates like Green Party candidate Jill Stein and progressive independent candidate Cornell West, as well as potential third-party “unity” presidential tickets, may also play a role in the 2024 election, as they did in the 2016 election between Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
