According to recent polling conducted by the Bullfinch Group, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in three key states in the Rust Belt – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In Michigan, Harris holds an 8-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup. However, her lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is much smaller and falls within the margin of error for the polls. The poll surveyed 1,800 likely voters across the three states and had a margin of error of ± 4 points.
While Harris is currently leading in these states, her numbers have been declining in recent weeks. FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows that Harris has a very slim lead in these states, with her vote share decreasing since September. National polls have also shown a decline in Harris’ lead, with some polls indicating Trump leading by small margins. Trump has also made gains in key swing states, leading in all seven battleground states according to a recent poll.
Currently, RealClearPolitics’ forecast predicts Trump winning the Electoral College with 312 votes to Harris’ 226. However, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s models still suggest that Harris will win key states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, which would push her past the 270 Electoral College votes required to win the presidency. Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump requires 51.
In the latest update from Nate Silver, he described the race as “literally 50/50,” with key swing states showing a virtual tie between the two candidates. FiveThirtyEight shows Harris leading Trump by 2.1 points nationally, while Silver’s tracker has her up by 2.3 points. Despite the close race, Silver’s current forecast gives Trump a slight edge with a 50.2 percent chance of winning compared to Harris’ 49.5 percent. With a tight race in swing states and the Electoral College votes up for grabs, the outcome of the election remains uncertain.
